Psychological differences between south-eastern Australian householders' who intend to leave if threatened by a wildfire and those who intend to stay and defend

Disastrous wildfires have occurred often in south-eastern Australia. Following multi-fatality wildfires in Victoria on 7 February 2009 the national approach to community wildfire safety, ‘Prepare, stay and defend or leave early’, came under intense critical scrutiny. The approach was revised subsequently so as to emphasise leaving as the safest option in the event of a wildfire warning. This study reports findings from a survey of 584 residents of at-risk locations. The majority (47%) reported that they intended to leave if warned of a bushfire threat. However, a substantial minority (24%) reported that they intended to stay and defend their home. A further 29% reported that they intended to wait and see what developed before making a final decision. Those intending to leave differed from those intending to stay and defend in several ways. Those intending to leave were characterised generally by being more concerned about the danger posed by bushfires, they viewed themselves as more vulnerable to bushfire threat and they were worried about their house being destroyed in their absence. Those intending to stay and defend were motivated, mostly, to protect their valued property and they believed that their efforts would be successful. They did not perceive themselves to be risk takers. Those intending to leave generally reported rather low levels of preparations for leaving safely. An appreciable percentage of those intending to stay and defend reported levels of preparations for safe defence which were probably inadequate for safe and effective defence.

[1]  T. Prior,et al.  Defining the importance of mental preparedness for risk communication and residents well-prepared for wildfire , 2013 .

[2]  M. Conner,et al.  Efficacy of the Theory of Planned Behaviour: a meta-analytic review. , 2001, The British journal of social psychology.

[3]  A. Gill,et al.  The worldwide "wildfire" problem. , 2013, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[4]  Troy E. Hall,et al.  Cognitive Factors Affecting Homeowners' Reactions to Defensible Space in the Oregon Coast Range , 2009 .

[5]  G. Kok,et al.  The Theory of Planned Behavior: A Review of its Applications to Health-Related Behaviors , 1996, American journal of health promotion : AJHP.

[6]  Douglas Paton,et al.  Preparing for bushfires: understanding intentions , 2006 .

[7]  Tim Harries,et al.  Feeling secure or being secure? Why it can seem better not to protect yourself against a natural hazard , 2008 .

[8]  Sarah McCaffrey,et al.  Wildfire evacuation and its alternatives: perspectives from four United States’ communities , 2014 .

[9]  Susan Pascoe,et al.  The 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission final report , 2010 .

[10]  R. W. Rogers,et al.  Protection motivation and self-efficacy: A revised theory of fear appeals and attitude change , 1983 .

[11]  P. Sheeran,et al.  Expanding the affective and normative components of the theory of planned behavior: A meta-analysis of anticipated affect and moral norms , 2009 .

[12]  Rick McRae,et al.  A Conceptual Framework for Assessing the Risk Posed by Extreme Bushfires , 2011 .

[13]  J. Fried,et al.  Homeowner Perspectives on Fire Hazard, Responsibility, and Management Strategies at the Wildland-Urban Interface , 2000 .

[14]  Symbolic Meanings of Wildland Fire: A Study of Residents in the U.S. Inland Northwest , 2010 .

[15]  Sarah McCaffrey,et al.  Public Response to Wildfire: Is the Australian “Stay and Defend or Leave Early” Approach an Option for Wildfire Management in the United States? , 2009, Journal of Forestry.

[16]  A. Wilson,et al.  Predicting the probability of house survival during bushfires. , 1986 .

[17]  Silje Sommer Hukkelberg,et al.  The Role of Self‐identity in the Theory of Planned Behavior: A Meta‐Analysis , 2010 .

[18]  Neil D. Weinstein,et al.  Testing four competing theories of health-protective behavior. , 1993 .

[19]  Richard Cooke,et al.  How well do the theory of reasoned action and theory of planned behaviour predict intentions and attendance at screening programmes? A meta-analysis , 2008, Psychology & health.

[20]  Brian L. Quick,et al.  Antecedents of intention to help mitigate wildfire: implications for campaigns promoting wildfire mitigation to the general public in the wildland-urban interface , 2009 .

[21]  Keping Chen,et al.  Quantifying bushfire penetration into urban areas in Australia , 2004 .

[22]  T. McGee,et al.  “It's just a natural way of life…” an investigation of wildfire preparedness in rural Australia , 2003 .

[23]  Hannah Brenkert-Smith,et al.  Building bridges to fight fire: the role of informal social interactions in six Colorado wildland-urban interface communities. , 2010 .

[24]  Scott L. Stephens,et al.  Scientific and social challenges for the management of fire-prone wildland–urban interfaces , 2009 .

[25]  Ingrid M. Martin,et al.  The role of risk perceptions in the risk mitigation process: the case of wildfire in high risk communities. , 2009, Journal of environmental management.

[26]  M. Hogg,et al.  The theory of planned behaviour: self-identity, social identity and group norms. , 1999, The British journal of social psychology.

[27]  R. Stedman,et al.  SENSE OF PLACE AS AN ATTITUDE: LAKESHORE OWNERS ATTITUDES TOWARD THEIR PROPERTIES , 2001 .

[28]  P. Sheeran,et al.  Prediction and Intervention in Health-Related Behavior: A Meta-Analytic Review of Protection Motivation Theory , 2000 .

[29]  Pamela J. Jakes,et al.  Adoption and perceptions of shelter-in-place in California's Rancho Santa Fe Fire Protection District , 2010 .

[30]  E. Seydel,et al.  Protection Motivation Theory , 2022 .

[31]  Douglas D. Perkins,et al.  CONFIRMATORY FACTOR ANALYSIS OF THE SENSE OF COMMUNITY INDEX AND DEVELOPMENT OF A BRIEF SCI , 2003 .

[32]  K. Witte.  Putting the fear back into fear appeals: The extended parallel process model , 1992 .

[33]  Scott L. Goodrick,et al.  Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Wildfire-climate interactions , 2014 .

[34]  Matthew S. Carroll,et al.  Wildfire evacuation and its alternatives in a post-Black Saturday landscape: Catchy slogans and cautionary tales , 2012 .

[35]  Kimberley Opie,et al.  Environmental circumstances surrounding bushfire fatalities in Australia 1901–2011 , 2014 .

[36]  Nicholas E. Flores,et al.  Insights Into Wildfire Mitigation Decisions Among Wildland–Urban Interface Residents , 2006 .

[37]  What Applied Social Psychology Theories Might Contribute to Community Bushfire Safety Research After Victoria's “Black Saturday” , 2011 .

[38]  Albert S. Fu.  The Façade of Safety in California’s Shelter-In-Place Homes: History, Wildfire, and Social Consequence , 2013 .

[39]  Joshua Whittaker,et al.  Householders' safety-related decisions, plans, actions and outcomes during the 7 February 2009 Victorian (Australia) wildfires , 2013 .

[40]  Gene L. Theodori,et al.  The Influence of Home and Community Attachment on Firewise Behavior , 2010 .

[41]  Scott L. Goodrick,et al.  Trends in global wildfire potential in a changing climate , 2010 .

[42]  J. McLennan,et al.  Checklist Items For Researchers: Householder Preparations For Bushfires , 2011 .

[43]  V. Freimuth,et al.  Theory-Based Approaches to Understanding Public Emergency Preparedness: Implications for Effective Health and Risk Communication , 2010, Journal of health communication.

[44]  R. W. Rogers,et al.  A meta-analysis of research on protection motivation theory. , 2000 .

[45]  Jacob Cohen,et al.  A power primer. , 1992, Psychological bulletin.

[46]  J. McLennan,et al.  Bushfire survival preparations by householders in at-risk areas of south-eastern Australia , 2014 .

[47]  S. L. Manzello,et al.  The wildland-urban interface fire problem - current approaches and research needs , 2010 .

[48]  P. Sheeran,et al.  Descriptive norms as an additional predictor in the theory of planned behaviour: A meta-analysis , 2003 .

[49]  J. Handmer,et al.  Community safety during the 2009 Australian 'Black Saturday' bushfires : an analysis of household preparedness and response , 2013 .

[50]  Colleen Cheek,et al.  Preliminary Report on the January 2013 Fires in the South-Eastern Tasmania Research Project , 2013 .

[51]  Douglas Paton,et al.  When good intentions turn bad: Promoting natural hazard preparedness , 2005 .

[52]  R. Rogers.  Cognitive and physiological processes in fear appeals and attitude change: a revised theory of prote , 1983 .

[53]  B. McFarlane,et al.  Comparison of homeowner response to wildfire risk among towns with and without wildfire management , 2009 .

[54]  Holly Bender,et al.  What Motivates Individuals to Protect Themselves from Risks: The Case of Wildland Fires , 2007, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[55]  Jim McLennan,et al.  Predictors of south-eastern Australian householders' strengths of intentions to self-evacuate if a wildfire threatens: two theoretical models , 2014 .

[56]  Sarah McCaffrey,et al.  Social science research related to wildfire management: an overview of recent findings and future research needs , 2013 .

[57]  Predicting uptake of housing services: The role of self-categorization in the theory of planned behaviour , 2003 .

[58]  D. Paton,et al.  Understanding the Context: The value of community engagement in bushfire risk communication and education. Observations following the East Coast Tasmania bushfires of December 2006 , 2008 .

[59]  I. Ajzen.  The theory of planned behavior , 1991 .

[60]  C. Brunia,et al.  Wait and see. , 2001, International journal of psychophysiology : official journal of the International Organization of Psychophysiology.

[61]  D. Paton,et al.  Living with Bushfire Risk: Social and Environmental Influences on Preparedness , 2008 .

[62]  V. Braithwaite,et al.  A psychometric investigation of the usefulness of the EASI-III Temperament Survey in the Australian general population , 1984 .

[63]  Timothy W. Collins,et al.  What Influences Hazard Mitigation? Household Decision Making About Wildfire Risks in Arizona's White Mountains , 2008 .

[64]  K. Witte.  Fear control and danger control: A test of the extended parallel process model (EPPM) , 1994 .

[65]  Neville Nicholls,et al.  Climate change impacts on fire-weather in south-east Australia , 2005 .

[66]  Pamela J. Jakes,et al.  Alternatives to Evacuation— Protecting Public Safety during Wildland Fire , 2008 .

[67]  Andrew Aldersley,et al.  Global and regional analysis of climate and human drivers of wildfire. , 2011, The Science of the total environment.

[68]  Amalie Tibbits,et al.  Stay and defend or leave early: Policy problems and experiences during the 2003 Victorian bushfires , 2007 .

[69]  Tanya M. Swart,et al.  A review of health behaviour theories: how useful are these for developing interventions to promote long-term medication adherence for TB and HIV/AIDS? , 2007, BMC public health.

[70]  M. Hagger,et al.  Integrating the theory of planned behaviour and self-determination theory in health behaviour: a meta-analysis. , 2009, British journal of health psychology.

[71]  F. Moreira,et al.  Landscape--wildfire interactions in southern Europe: implications for landscape management. , 2011, Journal of environmental management.

[72]  Melanie Stidham,et al.  Outreach Programs, Peer Pressure, and Common Sense: What Motivates Homeowners to Mitigate Wildfire Risk? , 2011, Environmental management.

[73]  B. McFarlane,et al.  Complexity of homeowner wildfire risk mitigation: an integration of hazard theories , 2011 .

[74]  S. Schulte,et al.  Wildfire Risk and Climate Change: The Influence on Homeowner Mitigation Behavior in the Wildland–Urban Interface , 2010 .

[75]  J. Rossiter,et al.  The Predictive Validity of Multiple-Item versus Single-Item Measures of the Same Constructs , 2007 .

[76]  Ross A. Bradstock,et al.  Defining adequate means of residents to prepare property for protection from wildfire , 2013 .