Regional carrying capacity evaluation and simulation based on GIS and cellular automata model

In this paper, a comprehensive study for the evaluation and simulation of regional carrying capacity has been presented. After constructing the modified operational framework for regional carrying capacity evaluation and the indictor system, the Bohai-Rim region in northern China is taken as an example to implement the theoretical system: (1) Database is constructed and the data preprocesses have been performed based on GIS; (2) the assimilative capacity, supportive capacity and loading have been evaluated by using principal components analysis (PCA) and ecological footprint method; (3) then, the carrying states of 1996~2003 have been evaluated by statistical analysis; (4) future carrying states of 2004~2020 are forecasted by using ANN-based CA model.