Rational cops, rational robbers, and information

The effectiveness of punishment as a deterrent to crime is commonly held to be a function of the severity and certainty of sanctions. The negative association found between crime rates and lagged clearance rates, which previously has been interpreted as a deterrence effect, is shown in this analysis to be largely an artifact of a misspecified measurement procedure. A more plausible hypothesis that police decision makers are informed and thus respond to changes in crime by allocating resources and making more arrests is supported by evidence from St. Louis data.

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