To grow or to sprawl? Land Cover Relationships in a Mediterranean City Region and implications for land use management

Several Mediterranean cities underwent important morphological changes in the last century. This article deals with the transition from compact towards dispersed urban form and the consequent changes in Land Cover Relationships (LCRs) observed from 1960 to 2009 in Attica (Greece), a mono-centric, dense city region. We analyzed the long-term spatial distribution of four basic land cover classes to test if the ‘compact growth’ observed up to early 1990s and the ‘sprawl’ observed afterwards differently affect LCRs. Descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and multivariate procedures were used to verify this hypothesis. Results put in evidence similarities and differences in Land Cover Changes (LCCs) and LCRs observed during the two urban phases. Per-capita built-up area was found significantly higher in the ‘sprawl’ than in ‘compact growth’ phase. Cropland was the land cover class with the highest probability to undergo edification in both periods, but a significant conversion rate from forests towards cropland and pastures (in turn converted into built-up areas) was also observed in the ‘sprawl’ phase. This may be considered an indirect effect of urbanization due to sprawl-driven land fragmentation and recurrent fires induced by illegal housing and land speculation. We finally discussed how the changing LCRs may represent, at regional scale, a possible target for policies mitigating land consumption in ‘shrinking’ Mediterranean cities.

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