Research on Demand Forecast of Aircraft Spare Parts Based on Fractional Order Discrete Grey Model

Exact spare parts demand forecast is an important task of equipment maintenance support. In spare parts demand forecast of aircraft, there exists problems such as the lack of comparable existing equipments, less historical data of fault or spare parts demand and lack of understanding of the aircraft’s own guarantee characteristics. In this paper, a spare parts demand forecast method based on fractional-order discrete gray model is proposed. In this method, a fractional-order cumulative gray model is established from historical data containing “small sample” and “poor information Then, the genetic algorithm is applied to determine the optimal order of the model and the generation coefficient. Finally, the spare parts demand is predicted. Experimental results based on specific examples show that the proposed method can effectively predict the spare parts demand, and have good performance compared with the traditional integer-order model.