Cost Overrun Assessment Model in Highway Construction Projects Using Fuzzy Uncertainty Analysis

The aim of this paper is to propose a model for predicting cost overrun in highway construction projects using fuzzy logic. Model provides a decision support tool for contractors and project managers before bidding stage to quantify the probability of cost overrun. A list containing 52 factors responsible for cost overrun is prepared through vast literature review and negotiating with experts in highway construction industry. Total of 28 experts were asked to rank the identified factors on a five point likert scale. Identified factors are arranged in descending order using relative importance index method (RII). Top five factors are shortlisted for cost overrun assessment model development using fuzzy toolbox of MATLAB program software. Developed model shows graphs of variation of cost overrun for different combination of cost overrun factors. Finally, model validation is done using a case study.