Finding a New Approach to Measure the Operational Value of Intelligence for Military Operations: Annotated Briefing

Abstract : This Note documents the final executive-level briefing of a project called "Measuring the Operational Value of Intelligence, Electronic Warfare, and Target Acquisition (OPVIEW)". The purpose of the OPVIEW project was to develop and apply innovative analytic tools for quantifying the operational value of intelligence, electronic warfare/target acquisition (IEW/TA) assets and activities. It was expected that such tools would have applications to a broad range of analyses regarding military intelligence capabilities. The innovative feature of the OPVIEW project was that it attempted to relate IEW/TA results to the operational commander's decision making. The OPVIEW analytic tools accept as inputs both the commander's information requirements and the IEW/TA collection results. They also provide a way to track how collected information affects decisions about current plans and conduct of operations. The outputs of the models represent the effect or "value" of IEW/TA in this sense. The project developed three analytic tools: a methodology for relating commanders' requirements to collection results and two models that employ the methodology. The "static" model provides an aggregate assessment of the capability of specified systems and system packages to meet commanders' information needs in specified scenarios. The "dynamic" model is more detailed and broader in scope: it assesses the impact of intelligence collection on commanders' decision making over the course of an operation from initial planning to its conclusion. All three tools depend fundamentally on subjective-judgment data, but these data are systematically developed using experts in operations planning, intelligence collection and production, and analysis. The Note concludes with a discussion of the status of the three tools developed during the project and potential future directions for their use. (44 figures)