The OeNB's quarterly publication Monetary Policy & the Economy provides analyses of cyclical developments, macroeconomics forecasts, studies on central banking and economic policy topics as well as research findings from macroeconomics workshops and conferences organized by the OeNB.

In the U.S.A., after very dynamic economic growth in the third quarter of 2007, annualized real GDP growth markedly slowed to 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2007. Whereas weaker residential construction in-vestment and inventory rundown contributed negatively to growth, the previous two key pillars of economic activity – consumer spending and net exports – grew at a slower pace. This reflects the impact of the real estate and credit crisis. At 2.2%, growth in 2007 as a whole was the weakest since 2002.Marked dampened growth is expected to continue in 2008. The latest U.S. economic indicators also point in this direction, e.g. the sharp deterioration in consumer confidence and falling employment. Both the IMF and the U.S. Fed recently down-graded their growth forecasts for 2008.Inflationary pressures, which have been mounting since fall 2007, only marginally eased recently. In Febru-ary 2008, consumer prices advanced by 4.0% year on year. Core inflation, which fell to 2.% in February 2008, continued to exceed the U.S. Fed’s comfort zone. For 2008 as a whole, the U.S. central bank expects a down-turn-induced decline in consumer price growth ranging between 2.1% and 2.4%.The U.S. labor market situation also visibly deteriorated in recent months. For instance, for the first time since June 200 the number of