Dynamic-fuzzy simulation model for reproduction of mortality curves

This paper presents the study and expansion of a dynamic simulation model for aging and death (Hargrove 1998), which contemplates the representation of physiological capacity and the generation of events of risk in the life of an individual. The study identified the most influential parameters in the results of the simulations and a health impact and recovery module was included. The simulation model incorporates a fuzzy module to treat uncertainty. The expansion conducted allowed adapting the results of the simulation to real mortality curves. The reproduction of mortality curves allowed the study of populations with similar characteristics as well as the factors that could influence their development. This is interesting principally because it is possible to calibrate parameters with risk values for diseases that have high associated costs for both public and private health plans.

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