Optimal networks of nature reserves can be found through eigenvalue perturbation theory of the connectivity matrix.

Conservation and management of natural resources and biodiversity need improved criteria to select functional networks of protected areas. The connectivity within networks due to dispersal is rarely considered, partly because it is unclear how connectivity information can be included in the selection of protected areas. We present a novel and general method that applies eigenvalue perturbation theory (EPT) to select optimum networks of protected areas based on connectivity. At low population densities, characteristic of threatened populations, this procedure selects networks that maximize the growth rate of the overall network. This method offers an improved link between connectivity and metapopulation dynamics. Our framework is applied to connectivities estimated for marine larvae and demonstrates that, for open populations, the best strategy is to protect areas acting as both strong donors and recipients of recruits. It should be possible to implement an EPT framework for connectivity analysis into existing holistic tools for design of protected areas.

[1]  Paul R. Armsworth,et al.  RECRUITMENT LIMITATION, POPULATION REGULATION, AND LARVAL CONNECTIVITY IN REEF FISH METAPOPULATIONS , 2002 .

[2]  S. Levin,et al.  The Ecology and Evolution of Seed Dispersal: A Theoretical Perspective , 2003 .

[3]  G. Jones,et al.  Population connectivity and conservation of marine biodiversity , 2007 .

[4]  R. Steneck,et al.  Larval retention and connectivity among populations of corals and reef fishes: history, advances and challenges , 2009, Coral Reefs.

[5]  Will F. Figueira,et al.  Defining patch contribution in source-sink metapopulations: the importance of including dispersal and its relevance to marine systems , 2006, Population Ecology.

[6]  Hugh P Possingham,et al.  Planning for persistence in marine reserves: a question of catastrophic importance. , 2008, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[7]  P. Holgate,et al.  Matrix Population Models. , 1990 .

[8]  R. Cowen,et al.  Larval dispersal and marine population connectivity. , 2009, Annual review of marine science.

[9]  Claire B Paris-Limouzy,et al.  Connectivity and resilience of coral reef metapopulations in marine protected areas: matching empirical efforts to predictive needs , 2009, Coral Reefs.

[10]  R. A. Fisher,et al.  The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection , 1931 .

[11]  Otso Ovaskainen,et al.  How much does an individual habitat fragment contribute to metapopulation dynamics and persistence? , 2003, Theoretical population biology.

[12]  C. Roberts,et al.  Connectivity and management of caribbean coral reefs , 1997, Science.

[13]  Thorsten Wiegand,et al.  Individual movement behavior, matrix heterogeneity, and the dynamics of spatially structured populations , 2008, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[14]  O. Ovaskainen,et al.  Spatially structured metapopulation models: global and local assessment of metapopulation capacity. , 2001, Theoretical population biology.

[15]  U. Willén,et al.  The development of the coupled regional ocean-atmosphere model RCAO , 2002 .

[16]  M. Meÿer,et al.  Transoceanic Migration, Spatial Dynamics, and Population Linkages of White Sharks , 2005, Science.

[17]  Atte Moilanen,et al.  Connectivity, Probabilities and Persistence: Comparing Reserve Selection Strategies , 2006, Biodiversity & Conservation.

[18]  S. Andelman,et al.  Mathematical Methods for Identifying Representative Reserve Networks , 2000 .

[19]  Ran Nathan,et al.  The importance of long‐distance dispersal in biodiversity conservation , 2005 .

[20]  S. Gaines,et al.  Model-based assessment of persistence in proposed marine protected area designs. , 2009, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[21]  H. Caswell,et al.  A general formula for the sensitivity of population growth rate to changes in life history parameters. , 1978, Theoretical population biology.

[22]  Mark H. Carr,et al.  PROPAGULE DISPERSAL DISTANCE AND THE SIZE AND SPACING OF MARINE RESERVES , 2003 .

[23]  Stefano Allesina,et al.  Googling Food Webs: Can an Eigenvector Measure Species' Importance for Coextinctions? , 2009, PLoS Comput. Biol..

[24]  Richard T. T. Forman,et al.  Landscape graphs: Ecological modeling with graph theory to detect configurations common to diverse landscapes , 1993, Landscape Ecology.

[25]  R. Gomulkiewicz,et al.  Temporal Variation Can Facilitate Niche Evolution in Harsh Sink Environments , 2004, The American Naturalist.

[26]  Timothy H. Keitt,et al.  LANDSCAPE CONNECTIVITY: A GRAPH‐THEORETIC PERSPECTIVE , 2001 .

[27]  J. Roughgarden,et al.  Larval settlement rate: A leading determinant of structure in an ecological community of the marine intertidal zone. , 1985, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[28]  J. J. Sakurai,et al.  Modern Quantum Mechanics , 1986 .

[29]  A. Hastings,et al.  Persistence of spatial populations depends on returning home. , 2006, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[30]  R. Ennos,et al.  Paternity analysis of pollen-mediated gene flow for Fraxinus excelsior L. in a chronically fragmented landscape , 2008, Heredity.

[31]  Mark E. J. Newman,et al.  The Structure and Function of Complex Networks , 2003, SIAM Rev..

[32]  T. Hughes,et al.  Recruitment Limitation, Mortality, and Population Regulation in Open Systems: A Case Study , 1990 .

[33]  M E J Newman,et al.  Modularity and community structure in networks. , 2006, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[34]  Jon Kleinberg,et al.  Authoritative sources in a hyperlinked environment , 1999, SODA '98.

[35]  P. Sale,et al.  Metapopulation ecology in the sea: from Levins' model to marine ecology and fisheries science , 2004 .

[36]  Patrick N. Halpin,et al.  Modeling population connectivity by ocean currents, a graph-theoretic approach for marine conservation , 2007, Landscape Ecology.

[37]  H. Pulliam,et al.  Sources, Sinks, and Population Regulation , 1988, The American Naturalist.

[38]  W. Figueira Connectivity or demography: Defining sources and sinks in coral reef fish metapopulations , 2009 .

[39]  Ernesto Estrada,et al.  Using network centrality measures to manage landscape connectivity. , 2008, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[40]  Claire B Paris-Limouzy,et al.  Scaling of Connectivity in Marine Populations , 2006, Science.

[41]  Habitat destruction, habitat restoration and eigenvector-eigenvalue relations. , 2003, Mathematical biosciences.

[42]  Will F. Figueira,et al.  Source-sink population dynamics and the problem of siting marine reserves , 2000 .

[43]  J. W. Humberston Classical mechanics , 1980, Nature.

[44]  K. Döös,et al.  Interocean exchange of water masses , 1995 .

[45]  M. Bode,et al.  Larval dispersal reveals regional sources and sinks in the Great Barrier Reef , 2006 .

[46]  G. Jones,et al.  Self-recruitment in a coral reef fish population , 1999, Nature.

[47]  T. Kawecki,et al.  Conceptual issues in local adaptation , 2004 .

[48]  J. Caselle,et al.  Larval retention and recruitment in an island population of a coral-reef fish , 1999, Nature.

[49]  Terry P. Hughes,et al.  RECRUITMENT AND THE LOCAL DYNAMICS OF OPEN MARINE POPULATIONS , 1996 .

[50]  Dean L Urban,et al.  Graph theory as a proxy for spatially explicit population models in conservation planning. , 2007, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[51]  Otso Ovaskainen,et al.  The metapopulation capacity of a fragmented landscape , 2000, Nature.

[52]  M. Fiedler Algebraic connectivity of graphs , 1973 .

[53]  Karin Frank,et al.  A new method for conservation planning for the persistence of multiple species. , 2006, Ecology letters.

[54]  John L. Largier,et al.  AVOIDING CURRENT OVERSIGHTS IN MARINE RESERVE DESIGN , 2003 .

[55]  R. L. Pressey,et al.  Connectivity, biodiversity conservation and the design of marine reserve networks for coral reefs , 2009, Coral Reefs.

[56]  V. Eguíluz,et al.  Network analysis identifies weak and strong links in a metapopulation system , 2008, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[57]  U. Willén,et al.  The development of the regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model RCAO , 2002 .

[58]  S. Levin The problem of pattern and scale in ecology , 1992 .

[59]  S. Andelman,et al.  COMPARING MARINE AND TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DESIGN OF COASTAL MARINE RESERVES , 2003 .