Irreducible uncertainties, sustainable fisheries and marine reserves

Marine reserves are increasingly proposed as a management tool. Models can play a valuable role in the evaluation of the possible benefits of reserves because they allow us to conduct many more investigations than could ever be done empirically. In this paper, I develop a model for a marine reserve for an open population subject to environmental uncertainty.

[1]  J. Hightower,et al.  Optimal Harvesting Policies for the Widow Rockfish Fishery , 1989 .

[2]  John Handmer,et al.  Ignorance, the precautionary principle, and sustainability , 1995 .

[3]  Dixon,et al.  Episodic fluctuations in larval supply , 1999, Science.

[4]  Enlarging the shadow of the future: avoiding conflict and conserving fish , 1998 .

[5]  J. Keller The Probability of Heads , 1986 .

[6]  R. Lewontin,et al.  On population growth in a randomly varying environment. , 1969, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[7]  Mangel No‐take areas for sustainability of harvested species and a conservation invariant for marine reserves , 1998 .

[8]  R. Law,et al.  Role of marine reserves in recruitment to reef fisheries: A metapopulation model , 1995 .

[9]  Y. Kagan,et al.  Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted , 1997, Science.

[10]  D. Cohen,et al.  Optimizing reproduction in a randomly varying environment when a correlation may exist between the conditions at the time a choice has to be made and the subsequent outcome. , 1967, Journal of theoretical biology.

[11]  Tom Polacheck,et al.  YEAR AROUND CLOSED AREAS AS A MANAGEMENT TOOL , 1990 .

[12]  Garry R. Russ,et al.  Do marine reserves export adult fish biomass? Evidence from Apo Island, central Philippines , 1996 .

[13]  C. Roberts,et al.  Connectivity and management of caribbean coral reefs , 1997, Science.

[14]  Susan Gubbay Marine protected areas : principles and techniques for management , 1995 .

[15]  N. Shackell,et al.  Marine protected areas and sustainable fisheries : proceedings of the symposium... conducted at the Second international conference on science and the management of protected aeras , 1995 .

[16]  Terrance J. Quinn,et al.  Quantitative Fish Dynamics , 1999 .

[17]  M. Love Probably More Than You Want to Know About the Fishes of the Pacific Coast , 1991 .

[18]  Eduardo S. Schwartz,et al.  Investment Under Uncertainty. , 1994 .

[19]  R. Wootton,et al.  Fish Reproduction: Strategies and Tactics , 1984 .

[20]  Eduardo S. Schwartz,et al.  Investment Under Uncertainty. , 1994 .

[21]  Daniel J. Miller,et al.  Fish Bulletin 158. Summary of Blue Rockfish and Lingcod Life Histories; A Reef Ecology Study; And Giant Kelp, Macrocystis Pyrifera, Experiments In Monterey Bay, California , 1973 .

[22]  D. Reed,et al.  Conceptual Issues Relevant to Marine Harvest Refuges: Examples from Temperate Reef Fishes , 1993 .

[23]  K. Patterson,et al.  Evaluating uncertainty in harvest control law catches using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo virtual population analysis with adaptive rejection sampling and including structural uncertainty , 1999 .

[24]  Richard T. Holmes,et al.  SITE-DEPENDENT REGULATION OF POPULATION SIZE:A NEW SYNTHESIS , 1997 .

[25]  M. Mangel Trade-offs between fish habitat and fishing mortality and the role of reserves , 2000 .

[26]  Bruce B. Collette,et al.  The Diversity of Fishes , 1997 .

[27]  J. Ault,et al.  Management Strategies to Conserve Marine Biodiversity , 1996 .

[28]  E. K. Pikitch,et al.  Implications of trip regulations for high-grading; a model of the behavior of fishermen , 1995 .

[29]  D. Cohen Optimizing reproduction in a randomly varying environment. , 1966, Journal of theoretical biology.

[30]  Marc Mangel,et al.  IMPLEMENTING THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE IN FISHERIES MANAGEMENT THROUGH MARINE RESERVES , 1998 .

[31]  Tim D. Smith,et al.  Principles for the conservation of wild living resources , 1996 .

[32]  E. K. Pikitch,et al.  Dynamic discarding decisions: foraging theory for high-grading in a trawl fishery , 1995 .

[33]  D. Cohen,et al.  Maximizing final yield when growth is limited by time or by limiting resources. , 1971, Journal of theoretical biology.

[34]  S. Amir On the Optimal Timing of Reproduction , 1979, The American Naturalist.

[35]  L. Botsford,et al.  Equivalence in yield from marine reserves and traditional fisheries management , 1999, Science.

[36]  A. O. Nicholls,et al.  SELECTING MARINE RESERVES USING HABITATS AND SPECIES ASSEMBLAGES AS SURROGATES FOR BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY , 1999 .

[37]  D. Gunderson Spatial patterns in the dynamics of slope rockfish stocks and their implications for management , 1997 .

[38]  Marc Mangel,et al.  On the fraction of habitat allocated to marine reserves , 2000 .

[39]  A. Starfield A pragmatic approach to modeling for wildlife management , 1997 .