Food scenarios 2025: Drivers of change between global and regional

Abstract This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society’). A less likely scenario is called ‘The reappearence of the sea − The aquarial society’. The purpose of the scenario writing has been to provide strategic tools for societal actors who to create economic growth and jobs, particularly regional governments and firms. Suggestions concerning regional industrial policy and firm actions are included in the article.

[1]  Christian Kjær Monsson.  Development without a metropolis: Inspiration for non-metropolitan support practices from Denmark , 2014 .

[2]  Simon A. Austin,et al.  Unravelling the complexity of collective mental models: A method for developing and analysing scenarios in multi-organisational contexts , 2011 .

[3]  S. Burt.  Buyer Power and Competition in European Food Retailing , 2003 .

[4]  J. Murdoch,et al.  Back to nature: Changing 'worlds of production' in the food sector , 1999 .

[5]  Cecil C. Bozarth.  Introduction to operations and supply chain management / Cecil C. Bozarth, Robert B. Handfield , 2008 .

[6]  Murray Turoff,et al.  The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications , 1976 .

[7]  G. Bristow,et al.  Food supply chain approaches: exploring their role in rural development. , 2000 .

[8]  Y. Pigneur,et al.  Business Model Generation , 2010 .

[9]  L. Mossberg.  A Marketing Approach to the Tourist Experience , 2007 .

[10]  Jon Sundbo,et al.  Creating Experiences in the Experience Economy , 2008 .

[11]  Robert B. Handfield,et al.  Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management , 2005 .

[12]  B. Joseph Pine,et al.  The Experience Economy , 2020, Journal of Orthopaedic Experience & Innovation.

[13]  Jens Nielsen,et al.  The Experience Economy: A new perspective , 2007 .

[14]  R. Ono,et al.  Assessing the validity of the Delphi technique , 1994 .

[15]  G. Finnveden,et al.  Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user's guide , 2006 .

[16]  S. Svejenova,et al.  Cooking up change in haute cuisine: Ferran Adrià as an institutional entrepreneur , 2007 .

[17]  Jon Sundbo.  Market development and production organization in the financial service firms of the 1990s , 1991 .

[18]  Olaf Helmer,et al.  Problems in futures research: Delphi and causal cross-impact analysis , 1977 .

[19]  Petri Tapio,et al.  Future images of meat consumption in 2030 , 2009 .

[20]  Jonathan Murdoch,et al.  Networks — a new paradigm of rural development? , 2000 .

[21]  Muhammad Amer,et al.  A review of scenario planning , 2013 .

[22]  E. Peelen,et al.  A new perspective on the experience economy : Meaningful experiences , 2007 .

[23]  Safania Normann Eriksen.  Defining local food: constructing a new taxonomy – three domains of proximity , 2013 .

[24]  The food and eating experience , 2008 .

[25]  D. Sundbo.  Local food: the social construction of a concept , 2013 .

[26]  Moya Kneafsey,et al.  Forecasting Food Supply Chain Developments in Lagging Rural Regions: Evidence from the UK. , 2004 .

[27]  George Wright,et al.  The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis , 1999 .

[28]  M. Warner,et al.  Rural transformations and rural policies in the US and UK , 2012 .

[29]  W. Kamakura,et al.  Quantitative Trendspotting , 2012 .

[30]  Erich Jantsch,et al.  Technological forecasting in perspective : a framework for technological forecasting, its techniques and organisation; a description of activities and annotated bibliography , 1966 .

[31]  R. S. Isenson,et al.  Technological Forecasting in Perspective , 1966 .

[32]  José A. Gómez-Limón,et al.  Foresight analysis of agricultural sector at regional level. , 2009 .

[33]  T. Futamura.  Made in Kentucky: The Meaning of "Local" Food Products in Kentucky's Farmers' Markets , 2007 .

[34]  Peter Finke,et al.  Scenario studies for the rural environment: selected and edited proceedings of the symposium Scenario Studies for the Rural Environment, Wageningen, the Netherlands, 12-15 September 1994. , 1995 .

[35]  William McCuaig,et al.  Slow Food : The Case for Taste , 2003 .

[36]  Vijo Varkey Theeyattuparampil,et al.  Carbon capture, utilisation and storage scenarios for the Gulf Cooperation Council region: A Delphi-based foresight study , 2012 .

[37]  Elie Ofek,et al.  Are You Ignoring Trends That Could Shake Up Your Business , 2010 .

[38]  Jan Mattsson,et al.  Organisational conditions for service encounter-based innovation , 2013 .

[39]  Jon Sundbo,et al.  Handbook on the Experience Economy , 2013 .