An analysis of precursory phenomena for the 2012–2013 Tolbachik Fissure Eruption: Seismicity parameters and crustal strain as inferred from data supplied by the system of multidisciplinary monitoring of volcanic activity in Kamchatka

Abstract—This paper is concerned with ground deformation and seismicity prior to the Tolbachik Fissure Eruption, which began in Kamchatka on November 27, 2012. Seismic and GPS data were analyzed to reveal synchronous precursory anomalies in crustal deformation and seismicity that lasted approximately 4 months (August to November 2012). The seismic anomaly was a statistically significant increase of seismicity with low energy (mostly KS = 4–6) beneath the Ploskii Tolbachik Volcano edifice at depths of less than 5 km. The rates of seismicity and seismic energy release were exceeded by factors of approximately 40 compared with the 2000–2011 mean values during the 2 to 3 weeks immediately before the eruption. The strain anomalies were observed as movements in the middle of the Klyuchevskoy volcanic group: a radial (relative to the eruption) compression and an extension in the tangential direction. The strain had reached ~ 10–7 by the beginning of the eruption. The durations of the seismic and strain anomalies were comparable in value (~ 4 months before the eruption), thus providing evidence of a common origin. We can classify them as belonging to the same time scale of precursors (the intermediate-term in the accepted terminology).

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