Multiple Lines of Evidence

This paper discusses the process of identifying factors that influence the contamination level of a given decision area and then determining the likelihood that the area remains unacceptable. This process is referred to as lines of evidence. These lines of evidence then serve as inputs for the stratified compliance sampling (SCS) method, which requires a decision area to be divided into strata based upon contamination expectations. This is done in order to focus sampling efforts more within stratum where contamination is more likely and to use the domain knowledge about these likelihoods of the stratum remaining unacceptable to buy down the number of samples necessary, if possible. Two different building scenarios were considered as an example (see Table 3.1). SME expertise was elicited concerning four lines of evidence factors (see Table 3.2): 1) amount of contamination that was seen before decontamination, 2) post-decontamination air sampling information, 3) the applied decontaminant information, and 4) the surface material. Statistical experimental design and logistic regression modelling were used to help determine the likelihood that example stratum remained unacceptable for a given example scenario. The number of samples necessary for clearance was calculated by applying the SCS method to the example scenario, using themore » estimated likelihood of each stratum remaining unacceptable as was determined using the lines of evidence approach. The commonly used simple random sampling (SRS) method was also used to calculate the number of samples necessary for clearance for comparison purposes. The lines of evidence with SCS approach resulted in a 19% to 43% reduction in total number of samples necessary for clearance (see Table 3.6). The reduction depended upon the building scenario, as well as the level of percent clean criteria. A sensitivity analysis was also performed showing how changing the estimated likelihoods of stratum remaining unacceptable affect the number of samples necessary. In conclusion, using the lines of evidence approach with the SCS method can reduce sample sizes when SME are able to identify factors that reduce the likelihood that an area remain unacceptable.« less