Short-Term Load Forecasting in Deregulated Electricity Markets using Fuzzy Approach

The worldwide electric power industry has seen many changes over the last 20 years. During this period many regulated or state-owned monopoly markets have been deregulated. In an electricity market, electricity price is decided based on demand and supply bids from the market participants; therefore, the importance of ShortTerm Load Forecasting (STLF) has been rising in these markets [1]. Load forecasting is an essential element of power system operation and planning involving prognosis of the future level of demand to serve as the basis for supply side and demand side planning. Load requirements are to be predicted in advance so that the power system operates effectively and efficiently. In the absence of accurate load demand information from some of the participants, forecast load information is used in many price-determining algorithms. Therefore, in deregulated markets, in addition to its conventional role of generation scheduling function and assessing power system security [2], STLF also plays a major role in price determination process.

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