From criticality to vulnerability of resource supply: The case of the automobile industry

Abstract The methodology of criticality assessment is used ever more frequently for the assessment of a system´s resource supply. At present, there are various approaches which differ in the selection of criteria as well as the applied aggregation methods. Mostly, two dimensions are used to assess criticality: “risk or likelihood of supply interruption” and “vulnerability to supply shortages”. However, there is no consensus about the criteria which are used to assess these dimensions. Furthermore, the terms “risk” and “vulnerability” are sometimes used in ways contradicting their general understanding and use in science. This paper presents a further methodological refinement to achieve a more consistent concept of assessing resources. In the presented methodology, vulnerability is determined as a function of sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity. It facilitates a clear distinction and allocation of criteria at various organizational levels in order to enable a better interpretation of the results. The presented methodology of vulnerability assessment is exemplarily applied to the automobile industry. So far, no criticality or similar assessment have been conducted for this industry. As a result, of 27 examined metals especially Rh (contained in autocatalysts), Dy, Nd, Tb and Pr (contained in electric motors of electric vehicles) and Eu (contained in emerging LED applications) were identified as the most vulnerable metals of automobile industry.