Decision Analysis as an Element in an Operational Decision Aiding System.

Abstract : This report describes Phase V efforts in the continuing investigation of the theoretical foundations of the decision-analytic model developed for the Office of Naval Research's Operational Decision Aiding Project. The principal issue under consideration was the degree to which the utilization of an incomplete, simple hierarchical model in the Tactical Decision Aid (TACAID) could lead to errors in inference as compared with a more complex Bayesian hierarachical model. Specifically, the more complex model would be designed to make allowances for data dependencies as well as nonstationarity in enemy intent. It was concluded that a simple model can lead to significant and potentially costly errors in inference, and that TACAID should be modified to handle these additional complexities. Concurrent with such modifications, training in the proper use of the more complex TACAID would be mandatory to ensure proper use of the additional capabilities. As part of the current research and developement effort, a situation definition capability, called TACDEF, was implemented for TACAID.