Risk Evaluation Based on the Time Dependent Expected Loss Model in FMEA

In FMEA, the risk priority number(RPN) is used for risk evaluation on each failure mode. It is obtained by multiplying three components, i.e., severity, occurrence, and detectability of the corresponding failure mode. Each of the three components are usually determined on the basis of the past experience and technical knowledge. But this approach is not strictly objective in evaluating risk of a given failure mode and thus provide somewhat less scientific measure of risk. Assuming a homogeneous Poisson process for occurrence of the failures and causes, we propose a more scientific approach to evaluation of risk in FMEA. To quantify severity of each failure mode, the mission period is taken into consideration for the system. If the system faces no failure during its mission period, there are no losses. If any failure occurs during its mission period, the losses corresponding to the failure mode incurs. A longer remaining mission period is assumed to incur a larger loss. Detectability of each failure mode is then incorporated into the model assuming an exponential probability law for detection time of each failure cause. Based on the proposed model, an illustrative example and numerical analyses are provided.