GRAF-pop: A Fast Distance-Based Method To Infer Subject Ancestry from Multiple Genotype Datasets Without Principal Components Analysis

Inferring subject ancestry using genetic data is an important step in genetic association studies, required for dealing with population stratification. It has become more challenging to infer subject ancestry quickly and accurately since large amounts of genotype data, collected from millions of subjects by thousands of studies using different methods, are accessible to researchers from repositories such as the database of Genotypes and Phenotypes (dbGaP) at the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI). Study-reported populations submitted to dbGaP are often not harmonized across studies or may be missing. Widely-used methods for ancestry prediction assume that most markers are genotyped in all subjects, but this assumption is unrealistic if one wants to combine studies that used different genotyping platforms. To provide ancestry inference and visualization across studies, we developed a new method, GRAF-pop, of ancestry prediction that is robust to missing genotypes and allows researchers to visualize predicted population structure in color and in three dimensions. When genotypes are dense, GRAF-pop is comparable in quality and running time to existing ancestry inference methods EIGENSTRAT, FastPCA, and FlashPCA2, all of which rely on principal components analysis (PCA). When genotypes are not dense, GRAF-pop gives much better ancestry predictions than the PCA-based methods. GRAF-pop employs basic geometric and probabilistic methods; the visualized ancestry predictions have a natural geometric interpretation, which is lacking in PCA-based methods. Since February 2018, GRAF-pop has been successfully incorporated into the dbGaP quality control process to identify inconsistencies between study-reported and computationally predicted populations and to provide harmonized population values in all new dbGaP submissions amenable to population prediction, based on marker genotypes. Plots, produced by GRAF-pop, of summary population predictions are available on dbGaP study pages, and the software, is available at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/projects/gap/cgi-bin/Software.cgi.