Risk Analysis Of The Kaunas HydropowerSystem

This paper presents risk analysis of the two biggest hydrological objects in Lithuania – Kaunas Hydropower Plant (KHP) and Kruonis Hydro Pump Storage Plant (KHPS), which comprise Kaunas hydropower system (KHS). Kaunas HP risk analysis was performed and the impact on it of the Kruonis HPS upper artificial reservoir crash during the floods period was analysed. Also the Kaunas dam overtopping probability and consequences of dam failure evaluation in terms of Kaunas city flooding zone mapping were evaluated. For the Kaunas dam probabilistic safety analysis the fault and event tree structures were used and dam overtopping probabilities under several scenarios were evaluated. For the calculated results sensitivity analysis was performed. The analysis results were used to specify the evacuation plans in the case of a catastrophe.