论文信息 - Performance of an Advanced MOS System in the 1996–97 National Collegiate Weather Forecasting Contest

Performance of an Advanced MOS System in the 1996–97 National Collegiate Weather Forecasting Contest

A prototype advanced model output statistics (MOS) forecast system that was entered in the 1996–97 National Collegiate Weather Forecast Contest is described and its performance compared to that of widely available objective guidance and to contest participants. The prototype system uses an optimal blend of aviation (AVN) and nested grid model (NGM) MOS forecasts, explicit output from the NGM and Eta guidance, and the latest surface weather observations from the forecast site. The forecasts are totally objective and can be generated quickly on a personal computer. Other “objective” forms of guidance tracked in the contest are 1) the consensus forecast (i.e., the average of the forecasts from all of the human participants), 2) the combination of NGM raw output (for precipitation forecasts) and NGM MOS guidance (for temperature forecasts), and 3) the combination of Eta Model raw output (for precipitation forecasts) and AVN MOS guidance (for temperature forecasts). Results show that the advanced MOS system fi...

Robert L. Vislocky | J. Michael Fritsch | J. Fritsch

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