Early bankruptcy prediction using ENPC

Abstract Bankruptcy prediction has long time been an active research field in finance. One of the main approaches to this issue is dealing with it as a classification problem. Among the range of instruments available, we focus our attention on the Evolutionary Nearest Neighbor Classifier (ENPC). In this work we assess the performance of the ENPC comparing it to six alternatives. The results suggest that this algorithm might be considered a good choice.

[1]  Ian H. Witten,et al.  Data mining: practical machine learning tools and techniques, 3rd Edition , 1999 .

[2]  Fernando Fernández,et al.  Evolutionary Design of Nearest Prototype Classifiers , 2004, J. Heuristics.

[3]  Ian Witten,et al.  Data Mining , 2000 .

[4]  Wullianallur Raghupathi,et al.  A neural network application for bankruptcy prediction , 1991, Proceedings of the Twenty-Fourth Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.

[5]  J. Ross Quinlan,et al.  C4.5: Programs for Machine Learning , 1992 .

[6]  Pat Langley,et al.  Estimating Continuous Distributions in Bayesian Classifiers , 1995, UAI.

[7]  John C. Platt,et al.  Fast training of support vector machines using sequential minimal optimization, advances in kernel methods , 1999 .

[8]  S. Cessie,et al.  Ridge Estimators in Logistic Regression , 1992 .

[9]  Melody Y. Kiang,et al.  Managerial Applications of Neural Networks: The Case of Bank Failure Predictions , 1992 .

[10]  Ian H. Witten,et al.  Generating Accurate Rule Sets Without Global Optimization , 1998, ICML.

[11]  Michael Y. Hu,et al.  Artificial neural networks in bankruptcy prediction: General framework and cross-validation analysis , 1999, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[12]  Amir F. Atiya,et al.  Bankruptcy prediction for credit risk using neural networks: A survey and new results , 2001, IEEE Trans. Neural Networks.

[13]  Pamela K. Coats,et al.  Recognizing Financial Distress Patterns Using a Neural Network Tool , 1993 .

[14]  Thomas E. McKee,et al.  Predicting bankruptcy using recursive partitioning and a realistically proportioned data set , 2000 .

[15]  W. Beaver Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure , 1966 .

[16]  C. Johnson RATIO ANALYSIS AND THE PREDICTION OF FIRM FAILURE , 1970 .

[17]  Ramesh Sharda,et al.  Bankruptcy prediction using neural networks , 1994, Decis. Support Syst..

[18]  Richard O. Duda,et al.  Pattern classification and scene analysis , 1974, A Wiley-Interscience publication.

[19]  Ramesh Sharda,et al.  A neural network model for bankruptcy prediction , 1990, 1990 IJCNN International Joint Conference on Neural Networks.

[20]  Edward I. Altman,et al.  FINANCIAL RATIOS, DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS AND THE PREDICTION OF CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY , 1968 .

[21]  C. Zavgren,et al.  The prediction of corporate failure: The state of the art , 1983 .