Identifying critical transitions of complex diseases based on a single sample

MOTIVATION Unlike traditional diagnosis of an existing disease state, detecting the pre-disease state just before the serious deterioration of a disease is a challenging task, because the state of the system may show little apparent change or symptoms before this critical transition during disease progression. By exploring the rich interaction information provided by high-throughput data, the dynamical network biomarker (DNB) can identify the pre-disease state, but this requires multiple samples to reach a correct diagnosis for one individual, thereby restricting its clinical application. RESULTS In this article, we have developed a novel computational approach based on the DNB theory and differential distributions between the expressions of DNB and non-DNB molecules, which can detect the pre-disease state reliably even from a single sample taken from one individual, by compensating insufficient samples with existing datasets from population studies. Our approach has been validated by the successful identification of pre-disease samples from subjects or individuals before the emergence of disease symptoms for acute lung injury, influenza and breast cancer.

[1]  John Kambhu,et al.  New Directions for Understanding Systemic Risk , 2007 .

[2]  Yoshiyuki Sakaki,et al.  Ligand-specific sequential regulation of transcription factors for differentiation of MCF-7 cells , 2009, BMC Genomics.

[3]  J. Drake,et al.  Early warning signals of extinction in deteriorating environments , 2010, Nature.

[4]  G. Vachtsevanos,et al.  Epileptic Seizures May Begin Hours in Advance of Clinical Onset A Report of Five Patients , 2001, Neuron.

[5]  James Murdock,et al.  Normal Forms and Unfoldings for Local Dynamical Systems , 2002 .

[6]  Denis Milan,et al.  Design of a High Density SNP Genotyping Assay in the Pig Using SNPs Identified and Characterized by Next Generation Sequencing Technology , 2009, PloS one.

[7]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Early Warnings of Regime Shifts: A Whole-Ecosystem Experiment , 2011, Science.

[8]  Jaak Vilo,et al.  g:Profiler—a web server for functional interpretation of gene lists (2011 update) , 2011, Nucleic Acids Res..

[9]  Solomon Kullback,et al.  Information Theory and Statistics , 1970, The Mathematical Gazette.

[10]  George Sugihara,et al.  Complex systems: Ecology for bankers , 2008, Nature.

[11]  Wolfgang Lucht,et al.  Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system , 2008, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[12]  Hermann Held,et al.  The potential role of spectral properties in detecting thresholds in the Earth system: application to the thermohaline circulation , 2003 .

[13]  Patrick E. McSharry,et al.  Prediction of epileptic seizures: are nonlinear methods relevant? , 2003, Nature Medicine.

[14]  Kazuyuki Aihara,et al.  Development of a mathematical model that predicts the outcome of hormone therapy for prostate cancer. , 2010, Journal of theoretical biology.

[15]  Aladdin Shamilov,et al.  Generalized entropy optimization distributions dependent on parameter in time series , 2010 .

[16]  Luonan Chen,et al.  Coexpression network analysis in chronic hepatitis B and C hepatic lesions reveals distinct patterns of disease progression to hepatocellular carcinoma. , 2012, Journal of molecular cell biology.

[17]  Kazuyuki Aihara,et al.  Detecting early-warning signals for sudden deterioration of complex diseases by dynamical network biomarkers , 2012, Scientific Reports.

[18]  Xiang-Sun Zhang,et al.  NOA: a novel Network Ontology Analysis method , 2011, Nucleic acids research.

[19]  Rama Chellappa,et al.  From sample similarity to ensemble similarity: probabilistic distance measures in reproducing kernel Hilbert space , 2006, IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence.

[20]  Kazuyuki Aihara,et al.  Dynamical network biomarkers for identifying critical transitions and their driving networks of biologic processes , 2013, Quantitative Biology.

[21]  K. Aihara,et al.  Early Diagnosis of Complex Diseases by Molecular Biomarkers, Network Biomarkers, and Dynamical Network Biomarkers , 2014, Medicinal research reviews.

[22]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Rising variance: a leading indicator of ecological transition. , 2006, Ecology letters.

[23]  Roberto Pastor-Barriuso,et al.  Transition models for change‐point estimation in logistic regression , 2003, Statistics in medicine.

[24]  Thomas M. Cover,et al.  Elements of Information Theory: Cover/Elements of Information Theory, Second Edition , 2005 .

[25]  M. Scheffer,et al.  Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change , 2008, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[26]  R. May Thresholds and breakpoints in ecosystems with a multiplicity of stable states , 1977, Nature.

[27]  Xing-Ming Zhao,et al.  Detecting early-warning signals of type 1 diabetes and its leading biomolecular networks by dynamical network biomarkers , 2013, BMC Medical Genomics.

[28]  Steven H. Strogatz,et al.  Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos: With Applications to Physics, Biology, Chemistry, and Engineering , 1994 .

[29]  George Sugihara,et al.  Ecology for bankers , 2008 .

[30]  T. Kleinen,et al.  Detection of climate system bifurcations by degenerate fingerprinting , 2004 .

[31]  Kazuyuki Aihara,et al.  Identifying critical transitions and their leading biomolecular networks in complex diseases , 2012, Scientific Reports.

[32]  V. Arnold Dynamical systems V. Bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory , 1994 .

[33]  S Kullback,et al.  LETTER TO THE EDITOR: THE KULLBACK-LEIBLER DISTANCE , 1987 .

[34]  Y. Kivshar,et al.  Wide-band negative permeability of nonlinear metamaterials , 2012, Scientific Reports.

[35]  Solomon Kullback,et al.  Information Theory and Statistics , 1960 .

[36]  Andrew H. Liu,et al.  Self-Organized Patchiness in Asthma as a Prelude to Catastrophic Shifts , 2006, Pediatrics.

[37]  S. Carpenter Eutrophication of aquatic ecosystems: bistability and soil phosphorus. , 2005, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[38]  John Kambhu,et al.  New directions for understanding systemic risk: a report on a conference cosponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the National Academy of Sciences , 2007 .

[39]  Thomas M. Cover,et al.  Elements of Information Theory , 2005 .

[40]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems , 2001, Nature.

[41]  T. S. Moran,et al.  Genomic analysis of murine pulmonary tissue following carbonyl chloride inhalation. , 2005, Chemical research in toxicology.

[42]  Jung Hun Oh,et al.  Biological Data Outlier Detection Based on Kullback-Leibler Divergence , 2008, 2008 IEEE International Conference on Bioinformatics and Biomedicine.

[43]  Kresten Lindorff-Larsen,et al.  Similarity Measures for Protein Ensembles , 2009, PloS one.

[44]  L. Carin,et al.  Temporal Dynamics of Host Molecular Responses Differentiate Symptomatic and Asymptomatic Influenza A Infection , 2011, PLoS genetics.

[45]  Rui Liu,et al.  Detecting tissue-specific early warning signals for complex diseases based on dynamical network biomarkers: study of type 2 diabetes by cross-tissue analysis , 2014, Briefings Bioinform..

[46]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Early-warning signals for critical transitions , 2009, Nature.

[47]  Chul-Kee Park,et al.  Hearing preservation after gamma knife stereotactic radiosurgery of vestibular schwannoma , 2005, Cancer.