Relating Flying Hours to Aircrew Performance: Evidence for Attack and Transport Missions

Abstract : This paper describes the development of quantitative relationships between the flight experience of military flying personnel and how well they perform important aspects of their mission. This research responds in part to concerns expressed by the General Accounting Office and Congress about the impact of reductions in the services' flying-hour programs. Research confirms the hypothesis that experience enhances proficiency in two ways: through the short-run honing of skills and through the long-run development of mastery. Measures of experience include flights and flying hours in the previous 7 to 60 days and the number of career flying hours. Econometric models and estimates of the strength of the links between these experience measures and two measures of performance are developed. The performance measures are bombing and tactical airdrop accuracy. In addition, the tradeoff between flying and flight simulator hours is examined for both Marine Corps and C-130 crewmembers. We conclude that although short-run measures are significant, the most important determinant of proficiency is total flying hours. This means that in an emergency it would be difficult to correct long-term deficiencies in accumulated flying hours.