Natural-society multiple entities interaction modeling and watershed hazard risk estimation

With the urban extension, land development, land use change, and climate change, the increasing natural-society interaction breeds the environment of hazard risk for human society. Watershed hazard risk assessment has been continuously researched with changed natural environment and human activity. This paper has discussed integrated assessment approaches based on watershed natural-society dynamic interaction modeling and estimation methods. Compared with traditional multiple criteria or multiple attribute assessment, the proposed approaches consider the characteristics of natural-society multiple entities interaction and dynamic change environment. A formal representation of natural-society multiple entities and a graph model for multiple entities interaction has been given. Estimation methods based on the multiple entities interaction model have been presented, including single entity state estimation, multiple entities attribute assessment, multiple entities state estimation, and uncertainty multiple entities attribute (or state) Bayesian network estimation. Finally, a case of watershed hydrology-engineering-society interaction and flood hazard risk assessment has been discussed.