Observed connection between stratospheric sudden warmings and the Madden‐Julian Oscillation

[1] The effect of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex and major, mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) is evaluated using a meteorological reanalysis dataset. The MJO influences the region in the tropospheric North Pacific sector that is most strongly associated with a SSW. Consistent with this, SSWs in the reanalysis record have tended to follow certain MJO phases. The magnitude of the influence of the MJO on the vortex is comparable to that associated with the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Nino. The MJO could be used to improve intra-seasonal projections of the Northern Hemisphere high latitude circulation, and in particular of the tropospheric Northern Annular Mode, at lags exceeding one month.

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