An integrated model to evaluate water-energy-food nexus at a household scale

To achieve a sustainable supply and effectively manage water, energy and food (WEF) demand, interactions between WEF need to be understood. This study developed an integrated model, capturing the interactions between WEF at end-use level at a household scale. The model is based on a survey of 419 households conducted to investigate WEF over winter and summer for the city of Duhok, Iraq. A bottom-up approach was used to develop this system dynamics-based model. The model estimates WEF demand and the generated organic waste and wastewater quantities. It also investigates the impact of change in user behaviour, diet, income, family size and climate.The simulation results show a good agreement with the historical data. Using the model, the impact of Global Scenario Group (GSG) scenarios was investigated. The results suggest that the fortress world scenario (an authoritarian response to the threat of breakdown) had the highest impact on WEF. Develop a model capturing the interactions between WEF at a household scale.The developed model can quantify WEF demand and the generated waste from a household.Explore the impact of change in user behaviour, income and seasonality on WEF.Sensitivity, uncertainty and comparison with historical data for model validation.Investigate the impact of future scenarios using the system dynamics-based model.

[1]  M. Howellsb,et al.  Considering the Energy , Water , and Food Security Nexus , 2011 .

[2]  D. Okutu,et al.  Urban Household Characteristics and Implications for Food Utilization in Accra , 2012 .

[3]  Bert de Vries,et al.  Model projections for household energy use in India , 2011 .

[4]  U. Sonesson,et al.  Global food losses and food waste: extent, causes and prevention , 2011 .

[5]  S. Kenway,et al.  Energy use in the provision and consumption of urban water in Australia and New Zealand , 2008 .

[6]  Ulf Sonesson,et al.  The methodology of the FAO study: Global Food Losses and Food Waste - extent, causes and prevention”- FAO, 2011 , 2013 .

[7]  Dong Chen,et al.  A model for predicting household end-use energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in Australia , 2013 .

[8]  Angela Arpke,et al.  Domestic Water Use in the United States: A Life‐Cycle Approach , 2006 .

[9]  Paola Annoni,et al.  Sixth International Conference on Sensitivity Analysis of Model Output How to avoid a perfunctory sensitivity analysis , 2010 .

[10]  Slobodan P. Simonovic,et al.  A new modeling approach for water resources policy analysis , 1999 .

[11]  He Jacobs,et al.  Structure and data requirements of an end-use model for residential water demand and return flow , 2004 .

[12]  Promoting Skills,et al.  Sustainable development. , 2017, Nursing management.

[13]  G. Dromart,et al.  A Model , 2009 .

[14]  K. Stave A system dynamics model to facilitate public understanding of water management options in Las Vegas, Nevada. , 2003, Journal of environmental management.

[15]  Tove A. Larsen,et al.  Water-related energy in households: A model designed to understand the current state and simulate possible measures , 2013 .

[16]  Bengt Kriström Residential Energy Demand , 2013 .

[17]  Tom Kompas,et al.  Determinants of residential water consumption: Evidence and analysis from a 10‐country household survey , 2011 .

[18]  Ni-Bin Chang,et al.  System dynamics modeling for municipal water demand estimation in an urban region under uncertain economic impacts. , 2011, Journal of environmental management.

[19]  Hans-Peter Bader,et al.  Modeling the contribution of point sources and non-point sources to Thachin River water pollution. , 2009, The Science of the total environment.

[20]  Detlef P. van Vuuren,et al.  Model projections for household energy use in developing countries , 2012 .

[21]  Mattias Höjer,et al.  Eating energy—Identifying possibilities for reduced energy use in the future food supply system , 2009 .

[22]  Henry P. Huntington,et al.  The New Environmental Security: Linking Food, Water, and Energy for Integrative and Diagnostic Social-ecological Research , 2013 .

[23]  Haripriya Gundimeda,et al.  Life Cycle Energy Analysis (LCEA) of Cooking Fuel Sources Used in India Households , 2014 .

[24]  Cheng-Li Cheng Study of the inter-relationship between water use and energy conservation for a building , 2002 .

[25]  Jerome K Vanclay,et al.  Unsuspected implications arising from assumptions in simulations: insights from recasting a forest growth model in system dynamics , 2014, Forest Ecosystems.

[26]  W. Michael Hanemann,et al.  A discrete/continuous choice approach to residential water demand under block rate pricing , 1995 .

[27]  C. Aguilar,et al.  Domestic Water Heating and Water Heater Energy Consumption in Canada , 2005 .

[28]  H Christopher Frey,et al.  OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS , 2001 .

[29]  Akira Ishii,et al.  Methods of the Water-Energy-Food Nexus , 2015 .

[30]  David Jonathan Mark Flower An integrated approach to modelling urban water systems , 2009 .

[31]  Joint Fao,et al.  Human energy requirements : report of a Joint FAO/WHO/UNU Expert Consultation : Rome, 17-24 October 2001 , 2004 .

[32]  Slobodan P Simonovic,et al.  World water dynamics: global modeling of water resources. , 2002, Journal of environmental management.

[33]  H. Rogner,et al.  Climate, land, energy and water (CLEW) interlinkages in Burkina Faso: an analysis of agricultural intensification and bioenergy production. , 2012 .

[34]  H. P. Garg,et al.  Energy-related emissions and mitigation opportunities from the household sector in Delhi , 2007 .

[35]  Elizabeth Ann DeMerchant,et al.  User's Influence on Energy Consumption with Cooking Systems Using Electricity , 1997 .

[36]  Eric Kemp-Benedict,et al.  Global Scenario Group Futures: Technical Notes , 2002 .

[37]  D. Hamby A comparison of sensitivity analysis techniques. , 1995, Health physics.

[38]  Tom Kompas,et al.  Determinants of Residential Water Consumption: Evidence and Analysis from a Ten-Country Household Survey , 2011 .

[39]  Hector Malano,et al.  Seasonal Demand Dynamics of Residential Water End-Uses , 2015 .

[40]  M. Skove,et al.  Physics, classical and modern , 1989 .

[41]  Per Anker-Nilssen,et al.  Household energy use and the environment: a conflicting issue , 2003 .

[42]  H. Christopher Frey,et al.  Probabilistic Techniques in Exposure Assessment , 2016 .

[43]  V. Ismet Ugursal,et al.  Modeling of end-use energy consumption in the residential sector: A review of modeling techniques , 2009 .

[44]  Dragan Savic,et al.  Operational resilience of reservoirs to climate change, agricultural demand, and tourism: A case study from Sardinia. , 2016, The Science of the total environment.

[45]  A. Neef,et al.  Sustainable development and the water–energy–food nexus: A perspective on livelihoods , 2015 .

[46]  Utkur Djanibekov,et al.  A Generic Model for Analyzing Nexus Issues of Households’ Bioenergy Use , 2016 .

[47]  Lukas G. Swan,et al.  Residential Sector Energy and GHG Emissions Model for the Assessment of New Technologies , 2010 .

[48]  Dolf Gielen,et al.  Considering the energy, water and food nexus: Towards an integrated modelling approach , 2011 .

[49]  David E. Rosenberg,et al.  Heterogeneous Residential Water and Energy Linkages and Implications for Conservation and Management , 2014 .

[50]  Donald M. Waldman,et al.  A Discrete/Continuous Choice Approach to Residential Water Demand under Block Rate Pricing: Comment , 2005, Land Economics.

[51]  Wa'el A. Hussien,et al.  Assessing and Modelling the Influence of Household Characteristics on Per Capita Water Consumption , 2016, Water Resources Management.

[52]  Aftab Ahmad,et al.  Analysing complex behaviour of hydrological systems through a system dynamics approach , 2009, Environ. Model. Softw..

[53]  F. S. Goldner Energy use and domestic hot water consumption - Phase 1. Final report , 1994 .

[54]  N. Christensen,et al.  OECD ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK , 2001 .

[55]  Nigel Isaacs,et al.  Household Energy Use in a Temperate Climate , 2004 .

[56]  W. van Averbeke,et al.  Linking smallholder agriculture and water to household food security and nutrition , 2009, Water SA.

[57]  David E. Rosenberg,et al.  Developing a stochastic simulation model for the generation of residential water end-use demand time series , 2016 .

[58]  R C Sarker,et al.  Developing a demand model integrating end uses of water (DMEUW): structure and process of integration. , 2015, Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research.

[59]  Merih Aydinalp,et al.  Modeling of the appliance, lighting, and space-cooling energy consumptions in the residential sector using neural networks , 2002 .

[60]  Tomoharu Hori,et al.  World continental modeling for water resources using system dynamics , 2008 .

[61]  Arjen Y Hoekstra,et al.  Water footprint scenarios for 2050: a global analysis. , 2014, Environment international.

[62]  J. C. Lam,et al.  Seasonal variations in residential and commercial sector electricity consumption in Hong Kong , 2008 .

[63]  Rodney Anthony Stewart,et al.  End use water consumption in households: impact of socio-demographic factors and efficient devices , 2013 .