Effects of changing population or density on urban carbon dioxide emissions

The question of whether urbanization contributes to increasing carbon dioxide emissions has been mainly investigated via scaling relationships with population or population density. However, these approaches overlook the correlations between population and area, and ignore possible interactions between these quantities. Here, we propose a generalized framework that simultaneously considers the effects of population and area along with possible interactions between these urban metrics. Our results significantly improve the description of emissions and reveal the coupled role between population and density on emissions. These models show that variations in emissions associated with proportionate changes in population or density may not only depend on the magnitude of these changes but also on the initial values of these quantities. For US areas, the larger the city, the higher is the impact of changing its population or density on its emissions; but population changes always have a greater effect on emissions than population density. Approaches to examine the urbanization impact on climate change ignore that interactions between size and density may have an important influence on urban emissions. Here the authors show that variations in the emissions associated with changes in population or density may not only depend on the magnitude of these changes but also on the initial values of these quantities.

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