Time Consistent Multi-period Worst-Case Risk Measure in Robust Portfolio Selection

In this paper, we first construct a time consistent multi-period worst-case risk measure, which measures the dynamic investment risk period-wise from a distributionally robust perspective. Under the usually adopted uncertainty set, we derive the explicit optimal investment strategy for the multi-period robust portfolio selection problem under the multi-period worst-case risk measure. Empirical results demonstrate that the portfolio selection model under the proposed risk measure is a good complement to existing multi-period robust portfolio selection models using the adjustable robust approach.

[1]  Melvyn Sim,et al.  TRACTABLE ROBUST EXPECTED UTILITY AND RISK MODELS FOR PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION , 2009 .

[2]  Gang Li,et al.  Composite time-consistent multi-period risk measure and its application in optimal portfolio selection , 2016 .

[3]  Shouyang Wang,et al.  Risk control over bankruptcy in dynamic portfolio selection: a generalized mean-variance formulation , 2004, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control.

[4]  Gang Li,et al.  Multi-Period Risk Measures and Optimal Investment Policies , 2017 .

[5]  Laurent El Ghaoui,et al.  Worst-Case Value-At-Risk and Robust Portfolio Optimization: A Conic Programming Approach , 2003, Oper. Res..

[6]  Alexander Shapiro,et al.  On a time consistency concept in risk averse multistage stochastic programming , 2009, Oper. Res. Lett..

[7]  Andrzej Ruszczynski,et al.  Risk-averse dynamic programming for Markov decision processes , 2010, Math. Program..

[8]  S. Weber,et al.  DISTRIBUTION‐INVARIANT RISK MEASURES, INFORMATION, AND DYNAMIC CONSISTENCY , 2006 .

[9]  Yongchang Hui,et al.  Recursive risk measures under regime switching applied to portfolio selection , 2017 .

[10]  Alexander Shapiro,et al.  A dynamic programming approach to adjustable robust optimization , 2011, Oper. Res. Lett..

[11]  Y. Ermoliev,et al.  Stochastic Optimization Problems with Incomplete Information on Distribution Functions , 1985 .

[12]  Masao Fukushima,et al.  Worst-Case Conditional Value-at-Risk with Application to Robust Portfolio Management , 2009, Oper. Res..

[13]  Philippe Artzner,et al.  Coherent Measures of Risk , 1999 .

[14]  David Heath,et al.  Coherent multiperiod risk adjusted values and Bellman’s principle , 2007, Ann. Oper. Res..

[15]  Zhiping Chen,et al.  Optimal investment policy in the time consistent mean–variance formulation , 2013 .

[16]  Duan Li,et al.  Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Selection: Multiperiod Mean‐Variance Formulation , 2000 .

[17]  Herbert E. Scarf,et al.  A Min-Max Solution of an Inventory Problem , 1957 .

[18]  G. Pflug,et al.  Modeling, Measuring and Managing Risk , 2008 .

[19]  Nalan Gülpinar,et al.  Worst-case robust decisions for multi-period mean-variance portfolio optimization , 2007, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[20]  Li Chen,et al.  Tight Bounds for Some Risk Measures, with Applications to Robust Portfolio Selection , 2011, Oper. Res..

[21]  Raimund M. Kovacevic Time consistency and information monotonicity of multiperiod acceptability functionals , 2009 .