An Econometric Classification and Review of International Tourism Demand Models

The purpose of the paper is to provide an econometric classification and evaluation of 100 published empirical studies on modelling international tourism demand, according to the recognition and type of omitted explanatory variables, number and type of proxy variables used, method of estimation, and use of various diagnostic tests of the auxiliary assumptions of the various models. An analysis of the adequacy of model specifications and the statistical deficiencies of existing empirical tourism demand models will permit a greater appreciation of the factors which determine changes in international tourism demand and will aid in forecasting future tourism demand.

[1]  Harold W. Guthrie.  Demand for tourists' goods and services in a world market , 1961 .

[2]  Ilter Bakkal,et al.  Characteristics of U.S. demand for European tourism: A translog approach , 1991 .

[3]  F. J. Adejuwon.  Motivations for freedom of movement in the year 2000 , 1992 .

[4]  Public Policy and the Growth of the Mexican Tourism Industry, 1970-1979 , 1982 .

[5]  A. Gerakis.  Effects of Exchange-Rate Devaluations and Revaluations on Receipts from Tourism , 1965 .

[6]  S. Divisekera.  A model of demand for international tourism: a multi-country demand system , 1994 .

[7]  Pauline J. Sheldon,et al.  The Demand For Package Tours: A Mode Choice Model , 1987 .

[8]  D. N. Steinnes.  A Statistical Analysis Of The Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On Tourism , 1988 .

[9]  Stephen F. Witt,et al.  Substitute prices in models of tourism demand. , 1988 .

[10]  Peter Johnson,et al.  Holiday tourism expenditure: some preliminary econometric results. , 1990 .

[11]  J. Mangan,et al.  Family expenditure on hotels and holidays , 1992 .

[12]  S. F. Witt,et al.  Modelling AIEST Congress attendance , 1992 .

[13]  G. D. Jud,et al.  International Demand for Latin American Tourism , 1974 .

[14]  R. Engle.  Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation , 1982 .

[15]  Rebecca L. Johnson,et al.  A Statistical Analysis of the Demand for Visits to U.S. National Parks: Travel Costs and Seasonality , 1983 .

[16]  Stephen F. Witt,et al.  Econometric forecasts: Tourism trends to 2000 , 1992 .

[17]  F. Fisher.  Tests of Equality Between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions: An Expository Note , 1970 .

[18]  J. B. Ramsey,et al.  Tests for Specification Errors in Classical Linear Least‐Squares Regression Analysis , 1969 .

[19]  M. Poole,et al.  TRENDS AND PROSPECTS FOR AUSTRALIAN INTERNATIONAL AIR TRANSPORT , 1988 .

[20]  M. L. Kliman,et al.  A quantitative analysis of Canadian overseas tourism , 1981 .

[21]  Socrates I. Papadopoulos.  STRATEGIC MARKETING TECHNIQUES IN INTERNATIONAL TOURISM , 1987 .

[22]  S. Kwack.  Effects of Income and Prices on Travel Spending Abroad, 1960 III-1967 IV , 1972 .

[23]  J. Mak,et al.  Determinants of Visitor Expenditures and Visitor Lengths of Stay: A Cross-Section Analysis of U.S. Visitors to Hawaii , 1977 .

[24]  Jonathan Silberman.  A Demand Function For Length of Stay: The Evidence From Virginia Beach , 1985 .

[25]  K. J. White,et al.  Trouble in the travel account. , 1982 .

[26]  James Durbin,et al.  Testing for Serial Correlation in Least-Squares Regression When Some of the Regressors are Lagged Dependent Variables , 1970 .

[27]  W. Stronge,et al.  U.S. tourism in Mexico: An empirical analysis , 1982 .

[28]  G. Hollander.  Determinants of demand for travel to and from Australia. , 1982 .

[29]  Lila J. Truett,et al.  The response of tourism to international economic conditions: Greece, Mexico and Spain. , 1987 .

[30]  W. Fuller,et al.  Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root , 1979 .

[31]  D. Rugg,et al.  The Choice of Journey Destination: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis , 1973 .

[32]  The Impact of Travel Costs on Visits to U.S. National Parks: Intermodal Shifting Among Grand Canyon Visitors , 1986 .

[33]  H. Gray.  The Demand for International Travel by the United States and Canada , 1966 .

[34]  A. Edwards.  International tourism development forecasts to 1990 , 1976 .

[35]  Stephen F. Witt,et al.  Tourism demand forecasting models: Choice of appropriate variable to represent tourists' cost of living , 1987 .

[36]  D. Cox,et al.  An Analysis of Transformations , 1964 .

[37]  S. F. Witt.  An abstract mode–abstract (destination) node model of foreign holiday demand , 1980 .

[38]  J. Mak,et al.  An Empirical Comparison of Systems of Demand Equations for Tourist Expenditures in Resort Destinations , 1987 .

[39]  E. Smeral.  Tourism Demand, Economic Theory And Econometrics: An Integrated Approach , 1988 .

[40]  On recreation demand: a time-series approach , 1985 .

[41]  J. Hagan,et al.  Econometric study of British tourist expenditure in Ireland , 1972 .

[42]  T. Var,et al.  Factors affecting international tourism demand for Turkey. , 1990 .

[43]  Adib Kanafani.  Price Elasticities of Nonbusiness Air Travel Demand , 1980 .

[44]  F. Oliver.  The Effectiveness of the U.K. Travel Allowance , 1971 .

[45]  Ilter Bakkal.  Characteristics of West German demand for international tourism in the northern Mediterranean region , 1991 .

[46]  Michael J. Harrison,et al.  Market shares of US tourist expenditure in Europe: an econometric analysis. , 1984 .

[47]  Kenneth J. White.  An international travel demand model: US travel to Western Europe. , 1985 .

[48]  Rebecca M. Summary,et al.  Estimation of tourism demand by multivariable regression analysis: evidence from Kenya. , 1987 .

[49]  Comparative Tourism Development in Asia and the Pacific , 1992 .

[50]  L. Godfrey.  TESTING AGAINST GENERAL AUTOREGRESSIVE AND MOVING AVERAGE ERROR MODELS WHEN THE REGRESSORS INCLUDE LAGGED DEPENDENT VARIABLES , 1978 .

[51]  Alexander A. Sunday.  Foreign travel and tourism prices and demand , 1978 .

[52]  Kathleen Carey,et al.  Estimation of Caribbean tourism demand: Issues in measurement and methodology , 1991 .

[53]  Muzaffer Uysal,et al.  Determinants of demand for international tourist flows to Turkey. , 1984 .

[54]  S. Divisekera.  INTERNATIONAL DEMAND FOR AUSTRALIAN TRAVEL AND TOURISM , 1993 .

[55]  T. Var,et al.  A tourism demand function for the Okanagan, BC. , 1982 .

[56]  L. J. Crampon,et al.  A Model of tourism flow into the Pacific , 1973 .

[57]  Muzaffer Uysal,et al.  A linear expenditure model for tourism demand , 1991 .

[58]  J. Taplin.  A COHERENCE APPROACH TO ESTIMATES OF PRICE ELASTICITIES IN THE VACATION TRAVEL MARKET , 1980 .

[59]  Peter Johnson,et al.  Modelling tourism demand: A summary review , 1990 .

[60]  Fariborz Moshirian.  DETERMINANTS OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE FLOWS IN TRAVEL AND PASSENGER SERVICES. , 1993 .

[61]  S. F. Witt.  An econometric comparison of uk and german foreign holiday behaviour , 1980 .

[62]  W. Fuller,et al.  LIKELIHOOD RATIO STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE TIME SERIES WITH A UNIT ROOT , 1981 .

[63]  J. Gibbons,et al.  Devaluation and US tourism expenditure in Mexico , 1985 .

[64]  James Mak,et al.  Forecasting tourism demand; Some methodological issues , 1981 .

[65]  J. Durbin,et al.  Testing for serial correlation in least squares regression. I. , 1950, Biometrika.

[66]  Z. Mieczkowski,et al.  An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of the Exchange Rate on Canadian Tourism , 1987 .

[67]  J. Rosensweig.  Exchange rates and competition for tourists , 1986 .

[68]  M. J. Harrison,et al.  UK and US visitor expenditure in Ireland: some econometric findings. , 1984 .

[69]  Steven Garber,et al.  EXTENDING THE CLASSICAL NORMAL ERRORS-IN-VARIABLES MODEL , 1980 .

[70]  L. D. Matteo,et al.  The Determinants of Expenditures by Canadian Visitors to the United States , 1993 .

[71]  J. Mak,et al.  The demand for travel agents. , 1980 .

[72]  S. F. Witt,et al.  Econometric Models for Forecasting International Tourism Demand , 1987 .

[73]  Lance Schultz,et al.  Marketing international tourism to Australia: A regression analysis , 1992 .

[74]  R. Widdows,et al.  The Impact Of World Events On Travel To Europe During The Summer Of 1986 , 1988 .

[75]  J. Diamond.  Tourism's Role in Economic Development: The Case Reexamined , 1977, Economic Development and Cultural Change.

[76]  Geoffrey I. Crouch,et al.  The Study of International Tourism Demand: A Review of Findings , 1994 .

[77]  J. Artus.  The Effect of Revaluation on the Foreign Travel Balance of Germany , 1970 .

[78]  J. Mak,et al.  AN ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEM FOR VISITOR EXPENDITURES , 1985 .

[79]  Pooling international tourism in Western Europe , 1989 .

[80]  Douglas C. Frechtlich.  Tourism and the business cycle , 1980 .

[81]  T. Var,et al.  A tourism demand model , 1990 .

[82]  Theodore Syriopoulos,et al.  An econometric study of tourism demand: the AIDS model of US and European tourism in Mediterranean countries , 1993 .

[83]  Y. Haitovsky,et al.  THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CHARTER FLIGHTS ON TOURISM TO ISRAEL : AN ECONOMETRIC APPROACH , 1987 .

[84]  C. Jarque,et al.  An efficient large-sample test for normality of observations and regression residuals , 1981 .

[85]  Geoffrey I. Crouch,et al.  The Study of International Tourism Demand: A Survey of Practice , 1994 .

[86]  Petros G. Anastasopoulos.  The U.S. Travel Account: the Impact of Fluctuations of the U.S. Dollar , 1989 .

[87]  J. Durbin,et al.  Testing for serial correlation in least squares regression. II. , 1950, Biometrika.

[88]  H. Gunadhi,et al.  Demand elasticities of tourism in Singapore , 1986 .

[89]  M. McAleer.  SHERLOCK HOLMES AND THE SEARCH FOR TRUTH: A DIAGNOSTIC TALE , 1994 .

[90]  J. Artus.  An Econometric Analysis of International Travel , 1972 .