Detecting Shifts in Hurricane Rates Using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approach

Time series of annual hurricane counts are examined using a changepoint analysis. The approach simulates posterior distributions of the Poisson-rate parameter using Gibbs sampling. A posterior distribution is a distribution of a parameter conditional on the data. The analysis is first performed on the annual series of major North Atlantic hurricane counts from the twentieth century. Results show significant shifts in hurricane rates during the middle 1940s, the middle 1960s, and at 1995, consistent with earlier published results. The analysis is then applied to U.S. hurricane activity. Results show no abrupt changes in overall coastal hurricane rates during the twentieth century. In contrast, the record of Florida hurricanes indicates downward shifts during the early 1950s and the late 1960s. The shifts result from fewer hurricanes passing through the Bahamas and the western Caribbean Sea. No significant rate shifts are noted along either the Gulf or East Coasts. Climate influences on coastal hurricane activity are then examined. Results show a significant reduction in U.S. hurricane activity

[1]  Brian H. Bossak,et al.  Bayesian Analysis of U.S. Hurricane Climate , 2001 .

[2]  John M. Wallace,et al.  Large-scale atmospheric circulation features of warm and cold episodes in the tropical Pacific , 1990 .

[3]  L. Perreaulta,et al.  Bayesian change-point analysis in hydrometeorological time series . Part 1 . The normal model revisited , 2000 .

[4]  Galin L. Jones,et al.  Honest Exploration of Intractable Probability Distributions via Markov Chain Monte Carlo , 2001 .

[5]  J. Elsner,et al.  A characteristic time scale in the global temperature record , 1998 .

[6]  W. M. Gray,et al.  Long-term variations of Western Sahelian monsoon rainfall and intense U.S. landfalling hurricanes , 1992 .

[7]  Xufeng Niu,et al.  Secular changes to the ENSO‐U.S. hurricane relationship , 2001 .

[8]  Xufeng Niu,et al.  Effect of El Niño on U.S. landfalling hurricanes, revisited , 1998 .

[9]  Sylvia Richardson,et al.  Markov chain concepts related to sampling algorithms , 1995 .

[10]  Robert Lund,et al.  Detection of Undocumented Changepoints: A Revision of the Two-Phase Regression Model , 2002 .

[11]  S. E. Hills,et al.  Illustration of Bayesian Inference in Normal Data Models Using Gibbs Sampling , 1990 .

[12]  J. Namias.  SECULAR FLUCTUATIONS IN VULNERABILITY TO TROPICAL CYCLONES IN AND OFF NEW ENGLAND , 1955 .

[13]  E. Lorenz.  Deterministic nonperiodic flow , 1963 .

[14]  Peter Congdon,et al.  Applied Bayesian Modelling , 2003 .

[15]  L. Perreaulta,et al.  Bayesian change-point analysis in hydrometeorological time series . Part 2 . Comparison of change-point models and forecasting , 2000 .

[16]  J. Elsner,et al.  Fluctuations in North Atlantic hurricane frequency , 1999 .

[17]  Marc Lavielle,et al.  An application of MCMC methods for the multiple change-points problem , 2001, Signal Process..

[18]  A. Solow.  Testing for Climate Change: An Application of the Two-Phase Regression Model , 1987 .

[19]  J. Charney,et al.  Multiple Flow Equilibria in the Atmosphere and Blocking , 1979 .

[20]  X. Niu,et al.  Changes in the rates of North Atlantic major hurricane activity during the 20th century , 2000 .

[21]  C. J. Neumann.  Tropical cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, 1871-1986. , 1987 .

[22]  P. Jones,et al.  Extension to the North Atlantic oscillation using early instrumental pressure observations from Gibraltar and south‐west Iceland , 1997 .

[23]  James B. Elsner,et al.  Hurricanes of the North Atlantic: Climate and Society , 1999 .

[24]  Kam‐biu Liu,et al.  A 1,000-Year History of Typhoon Landfalls in Guangdong, Southern China, Reconstructed from Chinese Historical Documentary Records , 2001 .

[25]  Xufeng Niu,et al.  A Dynamic Probability Model of Hurricane Winds in Coastal Counties of the United States , 2001 .

[26]  Andrew R. Solow.  A Bayesian Approach to Statistical Inference about Climate Change , 1988 .

[27]  Tracking Hurricanes , 1966 .

[28]  H. Wilson,et al.  Hurricanes of the North Atlantic: Climate and Society , 2001 .

[29]  E. Maloney,et al.  Modulation of hurricane activity in the gulf of mexico by the madden-julian oscillation , 2000, Science.

[30]  R. Rotondi.  On the influence of the proposal distributions on a reversible jump MCMC algorithm applied to the detection of multiple change-points , 2002 .

[31]  R. Pielke,et al.  La Niña, El Niño, and Atlantic Hurricane Damages in the United States , 1999 .

[32]  J. R. Koehler,et al.  Modern Applied Statistics with S-Plus. , 1996 .

[33]  S. Vannitsem,et al.  Detecting climatic transitions : statistical and dynamical aspects , 1991 .

[34]  J. Overpeck,et al.  Abrupt climate change. , 2004, Science.

[35]  P. Chu,et al.  Large-Scale Circulation Features Associated with Decadal Variations of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Central North Pacific , 2002 .

[36]  Adrian F. M. Smith,et al.  Sampling-Based Approaches to Calculating Marginal Densities , 1990 .

[37]  Christopher J. Merchant,et al.  Atlantic hurricanes and NW Pacific typhoons: ENSO spatial impacts on occurrence and landfall , 2000 .

[38]  J. G. Lockwood,et al.  Abrupt and sudden climatic transitions and fluctuations: a review , 2001 .

[39]  Eric P. Smith,et al.  An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values , 2002, Technometrics.

[40]  Christopher W. Landsea,et al.  A Climatology of Intense (or Major) Atlantic Hurricanes , 1993 .

[41]  R. Wilson.  Statistical aspects of major (Intense) Hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin during the past 49 hurricane seasons (1950–1998): Implications for the current season , 1999 .

[42]  W. Michael Conklin,et al.  Monte Carlo Methods in Bayesian Computation , 2001, Technometrics.

[43]  Neville Nicholls,et al.  Downward trends in the frequency of intense at Atlantic Hurricanes during the past five decades , 1996 .

[44]  J. Knaff.  Implications of Summertime Sea Level Pressure Anomalies in the Tropical Atlantic Region , 1997 .

[45]  E. M. Ballenzweig.  RELATION OF LONG-PERIOD CIRCULATION ANOMALIES TO TROPICAL STORM FORMATION AND MOTION , 1959 .

[46]  J. Namias.  Seasonal persistence and recurrence of European blocking during 1958–1960 , 1964 .

[47]  A. Solow.  Statistical Modeling of Storm Counts , 1989 .

[48]  Sylvia Richardson,et al.  Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice , 1997 .

[49]  James B. Elsner,et al.  Spatial Variations in Major U.S. Hurricane Activity: Statistics and a Physical Mechanism , 2000 .

[50]  Anastasios A. Tsonis,et al.  Multiple attractors, fractal basins and longterm climate dynamics , 1990 .

[51]  Adrian F. M. Smith,et al.  Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis of Changepoint Problems , 1992 .