Characteristic effect of sequential alternative in dynastic decision process
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With the sequential characteristics types of alternative appearance in dynastic decision process,namely,successive candidate appearance,discontinuous candidate appearance,and successive non-candidate appearance,we find,by the method of laboratory experiment,that there is a positive correlation between successive times of candidate appearance and search numbers,and also a positive correlation between successive times of non-candidate appearance and search numbers.Furthermore,a decision-maker often is induced to "hot hand" under the condition of successive candidate appearance and to "gambler's fallacy" under the condition of successive non-candidate appearance.The findings are used to explain the irrational decision behavior that people like waiting and searching in the process of sequential decision when encountering the circumstance of successive appearance of candidate and non-candidate.At the same time,we discuss the difference between "hot hand" and "gamblers's fallacy",and make a comparation of appearance situation to the heuristic cognitive biases.