Simulation modeling for primary care planning in Singapore

Singapore is undergoing an epidemiological shift and has to provide services for an aging population with a higher burden of chronic disease. In order to address this challenge, enhancing the provision of primary care by improving the ability of more primary care providers to offer care to more complex patients over the continuum of needs is seen as a promising solution. Developing capabilities and capacities of primary care services is far from straightforward and requires careful analysis of how increasing the number of primary care providers with enhanced capabilities influences the multiple objectives of the health care system. The paper demonstrates how group model building can be used to facilitate this planning process, and provides potentially valuable initial insights regarding the tradeoffs engendered by policies aimed at meeting the health care needs of a more complex population.