Job Search and Cyclical Unemployment

A model economy is described that integrates job search and signal extraction analysis. Equilibrium differs from search models without signal extraction in that, even with a fixed real sector, unemployment fluctuates stochastically. It differs from standard signal extraction models because search introduces persistence. In fact, unemployment follows a second-order difference equation with coefficient that are functions of current and lagged values of the stochastic shocks. Thus the model has the potential to mimic actual business cycle data despite the fact that the underlying shocks are independently and identically distributed. Policy implications are discussed.