The future burden of obesity-related diseases in the 53 WHO European-Region countries and the impact of effective interventions: a modelling study

Objective Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the biggest cause of death in Europe putting an unsustainable burden on already struggling health systems. Increases in obesity are a major cause of NCDs. This paper projects the future burden of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, type 2 diabetes and seven cancers by 2030 in 53 WHO European Region countries based on current and past body mass index (BMI) trends. It also tests the impact of obesity interventions on the future disease burden. Setting and participants Secondary data analysis of country-specific epidemiological data using a microsimulation modelling process. Interventions The effect of three hypothetical scenarios on the future burden of disease in 2030 was tested: baseline scenario, BMI trends go unchecked; intervention 1, population BMI decreases by 1%; intervention 2, BMI decreases by 5%. Primary and secondary outcome measures Quantifying the future burden of major NCDs and the impact of interventions on this future disease burden. Results By 2030 in the whole of the European region, the prevalence of diabetes, CHD and stroke and cancers was projected to reach an average of 3990, 4672 and 2046 cases/100 000, respectively. The highest prevalence of diabetes was predicted in Slovakia (10 870), CHD and stroke—in Greece (11 292) and cancers—in Finland (5615 cases/100 000). A 5% fall in population BMI was projected to significantly reduce cumulative incidence of diseases. The largest reduction in diabetes and CHD and stroke was observed in Slovakia (3054 and 3369 cases/100 000, respectively), and in cancers was predicted in Germany (331/100 000). Conclusions Modelling future disease trends is a useful tool for policymakers so that they can allocate resources effectively and implement policies to prevent NCDs. Future research will allow real policy interventions to be tested; however, better surveillance data on NCDs and their risk factors are essential for research and policy.

[1]  DR Jones,et al.  Fore sight Tackling Obesities : Future Choices – Obesogenic Environments – Evidence Review , 2007 .

[2]  Kütüphane Koleksiyonları,et al.  Science Direct , 2001, Brain Research Reviews.

[3]  J. Seidell,et al.  Underreporting of BMI in Adults and Its Effect on Obesity Prevalence Estimations in the Period 1998 to 2001 , 2006, Obesity.

[4]  S. Gahagan,et al.  Overweight and Obesity , 2011 .

[5]  Gretchen A. Stevens,et al.  National, regional, and global trends in body-mass index since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 960 country-years and 9·1 million participants , 2011, The Lancet.

[6]  G. V. D. Bos The burden of chronic diseases in terms of disability, use of health care and healthy life expectancies , 1995 .

[7]  A. Basdevant,et al.  Trends in the prevalence of obesity in the French adult population between 1980 and 1991 , 1999, International Journal of Obesity.

[8]  S. Gortmaker,et al.  Health and economic burden of the projected obesity trends in the USA and the UK , 2011, The Lancet.

[9]  C. Read,et al.  Handbook of the Normal Distribution, 2nd Edition. , 1998 .

[10]  W. James,et al.  A life course approach to diet, nutrition and the prevention of chronic diseases , 2004, Public Health Nutrition.

[11]  K. McPherson,et al.  Obesity trends in Russia. The impact on health and healthcare costs , 2012 .

[12]  J. Coebergh,et al.  Recent trends in cancer survival across Europe between 2000 and 2004: a model-based period analysis from 12 cancer registries. , 2008, European journal of cancer.

[13]  John A. Nelder,et al.  A Simplex Method for Function Minimization , 1965, Comput. J..

[14]  J. Beckman,et al.  Research May 27 , 2016 Global Burden of Metabolic Risk Factors of Chronic Diseases , 2016 .

[15]  J. Kõrv,et al.  The Third Stroke Registry in Tartu, Estonia: Decline of Stroke Incidence and 28-Day Case-Fatality Rate Since 1991 , 2005, Stroke.

[16]  K. McPherson,et al.  Foresight report on obesity , 2007, The Lancet.

[17]  J. Kõrv,et al.  The Third Stroke Registry in Tartu, Estonia, from 2001 to 2003 , 2007, Acta neurologica Scandinavica.

[18]  Obesity Genes and Gene–Environment–Behavior Interactions: Recommendations for a Way Forward , 2008, Obesity.

[19]  K McPherson,et al.  Modelling obesity trends and related diseases in Eastern Europe , 2012, Obesity reviews : an official journal of the International Association for the Study of Obesity.

[20]  P. Elzer,et al.  project overview , 2002 .

[21]  E. de Luca d'Alessandro,et al.  OVERWEIGHT AND OBESITY , 2007, Hormone Research in Paediatrics.

[22]  C. Mathers,et al.  Stroke incidence and prevalence in Europe: a review of available data , 2006, European journal of neurology.

[23]  JanikaKõrv,et al.  The Third Stroke Registry in Tartu, Estonia , 2005 .