A real-options-based analysis for supply chain decisions

Flexibility allows firms to compete more effectively in a world of short product life cycles, rapid product development, and substantial demand and/or price uncertainty. We develop a supply chain model in which a manufacturing firm can have the flexibility to select different suppliers, plant locations, and market regions and there can be an implementation time lag for the supply chain operations. We use a real options approach to estimate the value of flexibility and to determine the optimum strategy to manage the flexibility under uncertainty in the currency exchange rate. To price the operational flexibility, we develop a Monte Carlo simulation technique that is able to incorporate a large number of variables into the valuation. We show that without considering time lag impact, the value of the operational flexibility can be significantly overestimated.

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