Prediction of mortality and organ failure based on coagulation and fibrinolysis markers in patients with acute pancreatitis

Abstract This study explored the predictive value of coagulation and fibrinolysis markers with acute pancreatitis (AP)-related mortality and organ failure. We retrospectively reviewed and analyzed coagulation and fibrinolysis markers and clinical outcomes of the patients with AP. A total of 273 patients with AP were enrolled, 7 patients died and 28 patients suffered from organ failure. Uni- and multivariate logistic regression identified the differences of all of the coagulation and fibrinolysis markers as risk factors for AP-related mortality. The differences of APTT value, TT value, D-dimmer level, FDP level, and AT III level were risk factors for organ failure. Furthermore, the OR of the differences of platelet, PT, APTT, TT, fibrinogen, D-dimmer, FDP, and AT III was substantially improved by grouping with intervals of 10 × 109/L, 2 seconds, 5 seconds, 3 seconds, 0.5 g/L, 3 mg/L FEU, 5 mg/L and 10%, respectively. The risk of mortality can increase up to 1.62, 5.17, and 5.60 fold for every 10 × 109/L, 2 seconds and 5 seconds of increase in platelet, PT and APTT, respectively. There is approximate 2-fold increase in risk of organ failure for every 2 seconds of TT increase. In receiver operating characteristic analysis, there is no difference in the predictive power of bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) with them in mortality or organ failure. In patients with AP, the dynamic changes of coagulation and fibrinolysis markers are good predictors for AP-related mortality and organ failure, especially platelet, PT and APTT in mortality and TT in organ failure.