Dealing with complex queries in decision-support systems

In decision-making problems under uncertainty, a decision table consists of a set of attributes indicating what is the optimal decision (response) within the different scenarios defined by the attributes. We recently introduced a method to give explanations of these responses. In this paper, the method is extended. To do this, it is combined with a query system to answer expert questions about the preferred action for a given instantiation of decision table attributes. The main difficulty is to accurately answer queries associated with incomplete instantiations. Incomplete instantiations are the result of the evaluation of a partial model outputting decision tables that only include a subset of the whole problem, leading to uncertain responses. Our proposal establishes an automatic and interactive dialogue between the decision-support system and the expert to elicit information from the expert to reduce uncertainty. Typically, the process involves learning a Bayesian network structure from a relevant part of the decision table and computing some interesting conditional probabilities that are revised accordingly.

[1]  Finn Verner Jensen,et al.  A PGM framework for recursive modeling of players in simple sequential Bayesian games , 2010, Int. J. Approx. Reason..

[2]  Wray L. Buntine A Guide to the Literature on Learning Probabilistic Networks from Data , 1996, IEEE Trans. Knowl. Data Eng..

[3]  David S. Johnson,et al.  Computers and Intractability: A Guide to the Theory of NP-Completeness , 1978 .

[4]  Richard N. Shiffman,et al.  Model Formulation: Representation of Clinical Practice Guidelines in Conventional and Augmented Decision Tables , 1997, J. Am. Medical Informatics Assoc..

[5]  Carmen Lacave,et al.  A review of explanation methods for heuristic expert systems , 2004, The Knowledge Engineering Review.

[6]  Michael Lawrence,et al.  The effects of structural characteristics of explanations on use of a DSS , 2006, Decis. Support Syst..

[7]  Donald E. Knuth,et al.  The art of computer programming: V.1.: Fundamental algorithms , 1997 .

[8]  C. Bielza,et al.  A Graphical Decision-Theoretic Model for Neonatal Jaundice , 2007, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[9]  Judea Pearl,et al.  Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems , 1988 .

[10]  David Thomas,et al.  The Art in Computer Programming , 2001 .

[11]  R Fischer,et al.  Helicobacter pylori gastritis and primary gastric non-Hodgkin's lymphomas. , 1994, Journal of clinical pathology.

[12]  Gregory F. Cooper,et al.  A Bayesian Method for the Induction of Probabilistic Networks from Data , 1992 .

[13]  Byunggu Yu,et al.  Processing partially specified queries over high-dimensional databases , 2007, Data Knowl. Eng..

[14]  Helmut Prodinger,et al.  Partial match queries in relaxed multidimensional search trees , 2001, Algorithmica.

[15]  Ross D. Shachter Evaluating Influence Diagrams , 1986, Oper. Res..

[16]  Judea Pearl,et al.  Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems - networks of plausible inference , 1991, Morgan Kaufmann series in representation and reasoning.

[17]  R A Greenes,et al.  Improving Clinical Guidelines with Logic and Decision-table Techniques , 1994, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[18]  Carmen Lacave,et al.  Explanation of Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams in Elvira , 2007, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part B (Cybernetics).

[19]  Eric Horvitz,et al.  Decision Analysis and Expert Systems , 1991, AI Mag..

[20]  Concha Bielza,et al.  A list-based compact representation for large decision tables management , 2005, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[21]  Concha Bielza,et al.  Explaining clinical decisions by extracting regularity patterns , 2008, Decis. Support Syst..

[22]  Kazuo J. Ezawa,et al.  Evidence Propagation and Value of Evidence on Influence Diagrams , 1998, Oper. Res..

[23]  P. Lucas,et al.  Computer-based Decision Support in the Management of Primary Gastric non-Hodgkin Lymphoma , 1998, Methods of Information in Medicine.