A Review of Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment

There is growing consensus that the populations, infrastructure and ecology of cities are at risk from the impacts of climate change. This review collates evidence of effects in four main areas: urban ventilation and cooling, urban drainage and flood risk, water resources, and outdoor spaces (including air quality and biodiversity). It is shown that built areas exert considerable influence over their local climate and environment, and that urban populations are already facing a range of weather related risks such as heat waves, air pollution episodes and flooding. Although climate change is expected to compound these problems, building designers and spatial planners are responding through improved building design and layout of cities. For example, green roofs and spaces provide multiple benefits for air quality, mitigating excessive heat and enhancing biodiversity. Hard engineering solutions will continue to play a role in adapting to climate change, but so too will improved forecasting and preparedness, along with risk avoidance through planning controls. There is also an over-arching need for higher-resolution weather data for testing future performance of buildings, urban drainage and water supply systems at city scales.

[1]  Christos Giannakopoulos,et al.  Trends in energy load demand for Athens, Greece: weather and non-weather related factors , 2006 .

[2]  J. Burton,et al.  Birds and climate change , 1995 .

[3]  Martijn Gough Climate change , 2009, Canadian Medical Association Journal.

[4]  P. Hadley,et al.  Gardening in the global greenhouse: the impacts of climate change on gardens in the UK. , 2002 .

[5]  N. Arnell Climate change and global water resources , 1999 .

[6]  M. Ekströma,et al.  New estimates of future changes in extreme rainfall across the UK using regional climate model integrations . 2 . Future estimates and use in impact studies , 2004 .

[7]  C. Magadza Climate Change Impacts and Human Settlements in Africa: Prospects for Adaptation , 2000 .

[8]  Lily Parshall,et al.  Mitigation of the heat island effect in urban New Jersey , 2005 .

[9]  R. Kovats,et al.  Climate change and human health: impacts, vulnerability, and mitigation , 2006, The Lancet.

[10]  G. Bürger,et al.  Effects of climate and land‐use change on storm runoff generation: present knowledge and modelling capabilities , 2002 .

[11]  J. C. Doornkamp Clay shrinkage induced subsidence , 1993 .

[12]  A J Wade,et al.  On modelling the flow controls on macrophyte and epiphyte dynamics in a lowland permeable catchment: the River Kennet, southern England. , 2002, The Science of the total environment.

[13]  T. Oke The energetic basis of the urban heat island , 1982 .

[14]  R. J. Scholes,et al.  The built environment and climate change in South Africa , 2003 .

[15]  Sue Grimmond,et al.  Applied climatology: urban climate , 2006 .

[16]  Katja Woth,et al.  North Sea storm surge statistics based on projections in a warmer climate: How important are the driving GCM and the chosen emission scenario? , 2005 .

[17]  Robert L. Wilby,et al.  Past and projected trends in London's urban heat island , 2003 .

[18]  R. Wilby Weekly warming , 2003 .

[19]  F. Zwiers,et al.  Toward Regional-Scale Climate Change Detection , 2003 .

[20]  R. Wilby,et al.  A comparison of statistical downscaling and climate change factor methods: impacts on low flows in the River Thames, United Kingdom , 2005 .

[21]  Robert L. Wilby,et al.  Constructing Climate Change Scenarios of Urban Heat Island Intensity and Air Quality , 2008 .

[22]  A J Saul,et al.  Flooding in the future--predicting climate change, risks and responses in urban areas. , 2005, Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research.

[23]  Cecilia Svensson,et al.  Dependence between extreme sea surge, river flow and precipitation in eastern Britain , 2002 .

[24]  Zong-ci Zhao,et al.  Climate change 2001, the scientific basis, chap. 8: model evaluation. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC , 2001 .

[25]  G. Hollis Rain, roads, roofs and runoff: hydrology in cities , 1988 .

[26]  Timothy R. Oke,et al.  Towards better scientific communication in urban climate , 2006 .

[27]  R. Nicholls Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century: changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios , 2004 .

[28]  Y. Shimoda Adaptation measures for climate change and the urban heat island in Japan's built environment , 2003 .

[29]  N. Arnell Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios , 2004 .

[30]  P. Herrington Climate Change and the Demand for Water , 1996 .

[31]  A. Arnfield Two decades of urban climate research: a review of turbulence, exchanges of energy and water, and the urban heat island , 2003 .

[32]  Gerald Mills,et al.  Progress toward sustainable settlements: a role for urban climatology , 2006 .

[33]  A. V. Vecchia,et al.  Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate , 2005, Nature.

[34]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  Climate Change Impacts on Urban Flooding , 2000 .

[35]  G. Meehl,et al.  More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century , 2004, Science.

[36]  C. N. Hewitt,et al.  A highly spatially and temporally resolved inventory for biogenic isoprene and monoterpene emissions: Model description and application to Great Britain , 2003 .

[37]  S. Schneider,et al.  Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California. , 2004, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[38]  P. Suarez,et al.  Impacts of flooding and climate change on urban transportation: A systemwide performance assessment of the Boston Metro Area , 2005 .

[39]  Joakim Langner,et al.  Impact of climate change on surface ozone and deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Europe , 2005 .

[40]  Julian Hunt,et al.  How can cities mitigate and adapt to climate change? , 2004 .

[41]  Ergebnisse von Klimaszenarien und Hochwasser-Statistik , 2004 .

[42]  David J. Sailor,et al.  Modeling the impacts of anthropogenic heating on the urban climate of Philadelphia: a comparison of implementations in two PBL schemes , 2005 .

[43]  David R. Easterling,et al.  Changes in the Probability of Heavy Precipitation: Important Indicators of Climatic Change , 1999 .

[44]  K. Emanuel Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years , 2005, Nature.

[45]  H. Rudd,et al.  Importance of Backyard Habitat in a Comprehensive Biodiversity Conservation Strategy: A Connectivity Analysis of Urban Green Spaces , 2002 .

[46]  Annette Semadeni-Davies,et al.  Urban Water Management vs. Climate Change: Impacts on Cold Region Waste Water Inflows , 2004 .

[47]  Jacques Verron,et al.  Can we improve the representation of modeled ocean mixed layer by assimilating surface-only satellite-derived data? A case study for the tropical Pacific during the 1997-1998 El Nino , 2003 .

[48]  R. Kovats,et al.  Global health impacts of floods: epidemiologic evidence. , 2005, Epidemiologic reviews.

[49]  Robert L. Wilby,et al.  Climate change, biodiversity and the urban environment: a critical review based on London, UK , 2006 .

[50]  J. Meyer,et al.  Streams in the Urban Landscape , 2001 .

[51]  P. Stott,et al.  Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003 , 2004, Nature.

[52]  S. Surendran,et al.  USE OF UKCIP02 CLIMATE‐CHANGE SCENARIOS IN FLOOD AND COASTAL DEFENCE , 2003 .

[53]  J. Gregory,et al.  Changes in the occurrence of storm surges around the United Kingdom under a future climate scenario using a dynamic storm surge model driven by the Hadley Centre climate models , 2001 .

[54]  D. Moorhead,et al.  Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate , 2002, Nature.

[55]  R. Wilby,et al.  A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: Low‐flow scenarios for the River Thames, UK , 2006 .

[56]  John R. Stedman,et al.  The predicted number of air pollution related deaths in the UK during the August 2003 heatwave , 2004 .

[57]  L. Leung,et al.  Potential regional climate change and implications to U.S. air quality , 2005 .

[58]  Mathilde Pascal,et al.  Mortality in 13 French cities during the August 2003 heat wave. , 2004, American journal of public health.

[59]  Desmond E. Walling,et al.  Water–air temperature relationships in a Devon river system and the role of flow , 2003 .