Co-evolution of transportation and land use: modeling historical dependencies in land use and decision-making

This project examines the land use-transportation interaction from an evolutionary perspective - once a certain set of goals are determined and pursued by politicians and planners, their land supply and transportation investment decisions are to a large extent driven by their previous decisions and the supply-demand dynamics in the urban system. Built upon this recognition of historical dependency and a previously developed transportation network growth model, a model of the co-evolution of land use and transportation is proposed in this project. Different from existing integrated land use and transportation models that assume exogenous network investment decisions, the co-evolution model considers both land use growth and transportation network growth as endogenous and market-driven. The central research question is how market and policies translate into transportation facilities and land use developments on the ground. The co-evolution model achieves a novel urban growth equilibrium, which is a useful concept for planning and policy analysis. An agent-based simulation approach is employed to integrate an existing land use model and the transportation network growth model. The resulting integrated co-evolution model is demonstrated in a series of policy sensitivity tests.

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