Prediction of the price of Ethereum blockchain cryptocurrency in an industrial finance system

Abstract Cryptocurrency has gained considerable popularity in the past decade. The untraceable and uncontrolled nature of cryptocurrency attracts millions of people around the world. Research in cryptocurrency is dedicated to finding the ether and predicting its price according to the cryptocurrency's past price inflations. In this study, price prediction is performed with two machine learning methods, namely linear regression (LR) and support vector machine (SVM), by using a time series consisting of daily ether cryptocurrency closing prices. Different window lengths are used in ether cryptocurrency price prediction by using filters with different weight coefficients. In the training phase, a cross-validation method is used to construct a high-performance model independent of the data set. The proposed model is implemented using two machine learning techniques. When using the proposed model, the SVM method has a higher accuracy (96.06%) than the LR method (85.46%). Furthermore, the accuracy score of the proposed model can be increased up to 99% by adding features to the SVM method.

[1]  Jaewook Lee,et al.  An Empirical Study on Modeling and Prediction of Bitcoin Prices With Bayesian Neural Networks Based on Blockchain Information , 2018, IEEE Access.

[2]  P. Ciaian,et al.  The economics of BitCoin price formation , 2014, 1405.4498.

[3]  Fei-Yue Wang,et al.  Towards blockchain-based intelligent transportation systems , 2016, 2016 IEEE 19th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC).

[4]  Yaohao Peng,et al.  The best of two worlds: Forecasting high frequency volatility for cryptocurrencies and traditional currencies with Support Vector Regression , 2018, Expert Syst. Appl..

[5]  Gerard Jounghyun Kim,et al.  A SWOT Analysis of the Field of Virtual Reality Rehabilitation and Therapy , 2005, Presence: Teleoperators & Virtual Environments.

[6]  Rifat Hacioglu,et al.  Prediction of Bitcoin prices with machine learning methods using time series data , 2018, 2018 26th Signal Processing and Communications Applications Conference (SIU).

[7]  Sooyong Park,et al.  Where Is Current Research on Blockchain Technology?—A Systematic Review , 2016, PloS one.

[8]  Denise Gorse,et al.  Predicting cryptocurrency price bubbles using social media data and epidemic modelling , 2017, 2017 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence (SSCI).

[9]  Davor Svetinovic,et al.  Security and Privacy in Decentralized Energy Trading Through Multi-Signatures, Blockchain and Anonymous Messaging Streams , 2018, IEEE Transactions on Dependable and Secure Computing.

[10]  Lipo Wang,et al.  Bitcoin price prediction using ensembles of neural networks , 2017, 2017 13th International Conference on Natural Computation, Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery (ICNC-FSKD).

[11]  Reuben Grinberg Bitcoin: An Innovative Alternative Digital Currency , 2011 .

[12]  S. Jagannatha,et al.  Analysis of Blockchain technology: pros, cons and SWOT , 2018, Cluster Computing.

[13]  Joel J. P. C. Rodrigues,et al.  Decentralized Consensus for Edge-Centric Internet of Things: A Review, Taxonomy, and Research Issues , 2018, IEEE Access.

[14]  Murat Yuksel,et al.  Profit Maximization for Bitcoin Pool Mining: A Prospect Theoretic Approach , 2017, 2017 IEEE 3rd International Conference on Collaboration and Internet Computing (CIC).

[15]  Pavlin Mavrodiev,et al.  The digital traces of bubbles: feedback cycles between socio-economic signals in the Bitcoin economy , 2014, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.

[16]  Khaled Salah,et al.  IoT security: Review, blockchain solutions, and open challenges , 2017, Future Gener. Comput. Syst..

[17]  Lipo Wang,et al.  Data Mining With Computational Intelligence , 2006, IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks.

[18]  Lior Rokach,et al.  Ensemble learning: A survey , 2018, WIREs Data Mining Knowl. Discov..

[19]  F. Richard Yu,et al.  Integrated Blockchain and Edge Computing Systems: A Survey, Some Research Issues and Challenges , 2019, IEEE Communications Surveys & Tutorials.

[20]  Arvind Narayanan,et al.  Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Technologies - A Comprehensive Introduction , 2016 .

[21]  Jason Bennett Thatcher,et al.  Blockchain Technology in Business and Information Systems Research , 2017, Business & Information Systems Engineering.

[22]  Björn Scheuermann,et al.  Bitcoin and Beyond: A Technical Survey on Decentralized Digital Currencies , 2016, IEEE Communications Surveys & Tutorials.

[23]  Salim Lahmiri,et al.  A Comparative Study Of Backpropagation Algorithms In Financial Prediction , 2011 .