A hybrid integrated architecture for energy consumption prediction

Irresponsible and negligent use of natural resources in the last five decades has made it an important priority to adopt more intelligent ways of managing existing resources, especially the ones related to energy. The main objective of this paper is to explore the opportunities of integrating internal data already stored in Data Warehouses together with external Big Data to improve energy consumption predictions. This paper presents a study in which we propose an architecture that makes use of already stored energy data and external unstructured information to improve knowledge acquisition and allow managers to make better decisions. This external knowledge is represented by a torrent of information that, in many cases, is hidden across heterogeneous and unstructured data sources, which are recuperated by an Information Extraction system. Alternatively, it is present in social networks expressed as user opinions. Furthermore, our approach applies data mining techniques to exploit the already integrated data. Our approach has been applied to a real case study and shows promising results. The experiments carried out in this work are twofold: (i) using and comparing diverse Artificial Intelligence methods, and (ii) validating our approach with data sources integration. Energy consumption predictions based on data mining and supported by external data.Heterogeneous data are combined through DW and Information Extraction (IE).Multidimensional model integrates information extracted from Social Networks and IE.The scenario: consumption prediction is modified with external unstructured data.

[1]  V. Ismet Ugursal,et al.  Modeling of end-use energy consumption in the residential sector: A review of modeling techniques , 2009 .

[2]  Lorenz M. Hilty,et al.  Sustainability and ICT - An overview of the field , 2011 .

[3]  Ron Kohavi,et al.  A Study of Cross-Validation and Bootstrap for Accuracy Estimation and Model Selection , 1995, IJCAI.

[4]  Markus Krötzsch,et al.  Semantic MediaWiki , 2006, International Semantic Web Conference.

[5]  Muthu Ramachandran,et al.  Cloud Computing Adoption Framework – a security framework for business clouds , 2015 .

[6]  Kazuo Asakawa,et al.  Stock market prediction system with modular neural networks , 1990, 1990 IJCNN International Joint Conference on Neural Networks.

[7]  Victor I. Chang,et al.  Corrigendum to "The business intelligence as a service in the cloud" [Future Gener. Comput. Systems 37C (2014) 512-534] , 2014, Future Gener. Comput. Syst..

[8]  Juan Trujillo,et al.  Enrichment of the phenotypic and genotypic Data Warehouse analysis using Question Answering systems to facilitate the decision making process in cereal breeding programs , 2015, Ecol. Informatics.

[9]  Victor I. Chang,et al.  A model to compare cloud and non-cloud storage of Big Data , 2016, Future Gener. Comput. Syst..

[10]  Il-Woo Lee,et al.  Efficient Building Energy Management System Based on Ontology, Inference Rules, and Simulation , 2011 .

[11]  Jean Carletta,et al.  Assessing Agreement on Classification Tasks: The Kappa Statistic , 1996, CL.

[12]  Gerard J. M. Smit Efficient ICT for efficient Smart Grids , 2012, 2012 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies (ISGT).

[13]  T. Bollerslev,et al.  Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity , 1986 .

[14]  Sanjay Ghemawat,et al.  MapReduce: Simplified Data Processing on Large Clusters , 2004, OSDI.

[15]  Chia-Ming Wu,et al.  A green energy-efficient scheduling algorithm using the DVFS technique for cloud datacenters , 2014, Future Gener. Comput. Syst..

[16]  Jie Zheng,et al.  Facilitating Knowledge Sharing and Analysis in EnergyInformatics with the Ontology for Energy Investigations (OEI) , 2012 .

[17]  Ian H. Witten,et al.  The WEKA data mining software: an update , 2009, SKDD.

[18]  J. Sim,et al.  The kappa statistic in reliability studies: use, interpretation, and sample size requirements. , 2005, Physical therapy.

[19]  Robert E. Davis,et al.  Statistics for the evaluation and comparison of models , 1985 .

[20]  Yunhao Liu,et al.  Big Data: A Survey , 2014, Mob. Networks Appl..

[21]  C. Willmott,et al.  Advantages of the mean absolute error (MAE) over the root mean square error (RMSE) in assessing average model performance , 2005 .

[22]  Montse Cuadros,et al.  OpeNER: Open Polarity Enhanced Named Entity Recognition , 2013, Proces. del Leng. Natural.

[23]  Paula Fonseca,et al.  Energy-efficient motor systems in the industrial and in the services sectors in the European Union: characterisation, potentials, barriers and policies , 2003 .

[24]  J. Ross Quinlan,et al.  C4.5: Programs for Machine Learning , 1992 .

[25]  J. D. Spaulding,et al.  Smart grid design synopsis consideration for the IEEE power & energy society , 2012, 2012 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies (ISGT).

[26]  Jeffrey M. Galloway,et al.  Decreasing power consumption with energy efficient data aware strategies , 2013, Future Gener. Comput. Syst..

[27]  Koen H. van Dam,et al.  Towards an ontology of consumer acceptance in socio-technical energy systems , 2010 .

[28]  Andrea Esuli,et al.  SentiWordNet 3.0: An Enhanced Lexical Resource for Sentiment Analysis and Opinion Mining , 2010, LREC.

[29]  Victor I. Chang,et al.  The Business Intelligence as a Service in the Cloud , 2014, Future Gener. Comput. Syst..

[30]  Yudong Zhang,et al.  Stock market prediction of S&P 500 via combination of improved BCO approach and BP neural network , 2009, Expert Syst. Appl..

[31]  M. Anusha,et al.  Big Data-Survey , 2016 .

[32]  Bernard Marr,et al.  Big Data: Using SMART Big Data, Analytics and Metrics To Make Better Decisions and Improve Performance , 2015 .

[33]  Edward Vine,et al.  An international survey of the energy service company (ESCO) industry , 2005 .

[34]  B Efron,et al.  Statistical Data Analysis in the Computer Age , 1991, Science.

[35]  S. Banfi,et al.  Willingness to pay for energy-saving measures in residential buildings , 2007 .

[36]  Paul Zikopoulos,et al.  Understanding Big Data: Analytics for Enterprise Class Hadoop and Streaming Data , 2011 .

[37]  M. Cheriet,et al.  Ontology-Based Resource Description and Discovery Framework for Low Carbon Grid Networks , 2010, 2010 First IEEE International Conference on Smart Grid Communications.

[38]  Wenxin Shi Renewable energy: finding solutions for a greener tomorrow , 2010 .

[39]  Lambros Ekonomou,et al.  Greek long-term energy consumption prediction using artificial neural networks , 2010 .

[40]  Andrew P. Bradley,et al.  The use of the area under the ROC curve in the evaluation of machine learning algorithms , 1997, Pattern Recognit..

[41]  Dipti Srinivasan,et al.  Energy demand prediction using GMDH networks , 2008, Neurocomputing.

[42]  David Hsieh Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets , 1991 .

[43]  Muthu Ramachandran,et al.  Towards Achieving Data Security with the Cloud Computing Adoption Framework , 2016, IEEE Transactions on Services Computing.

[44]  Katherine R. Young,et al.  HYDROTHERMAL EXPLORATION BEST PRACTICES AND GEOTHERMAL KNOWLEDGE EXCHANGE ON OPENEI , 2012 .

[45]  James Keirstead,et al.  A comparison of two ontologies for agent-based modelling of energy systems , 2010, AAMAS 2010.

[46]  Johan Bollen,et al.  Twitter mood predicts the stock market , 2010, J. Comput. Sci..

[47]  Fatos Xhafa,et al.  Semantics, intelligent processing and services for big data , 2014, Future Gener. Comput. Syst..

[48]  Tao Hong,et al.  Energy Forecasting: Past, Present, and Future , 2013 .

[49]  L. Suganthi,et al.  Energy models for demand forecasting—A review , 2012 .

[50]  Alan R. Hevner,et al.  Design Science in Information Systems Research , 2004, MIS Q..

[51]  Francesco Benzi,et al.  Electricity Smart Meters Interfacing the Households , 2011, IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics.

[52]  Ciprian Dobre,et al.  Intelligent services for Big Data science , 2014, Future Gener. Comput. Syst..

[53]  Florian Bauer,et al.  data.reegle.info - A New Key Portal for Open Energy Data , 2011, ISESS.

[54]  Cees T. A. M. de Laat,et al.  Addressing big data issues in Scientific Data Infrastructure , 2013, 2013 International Conference on Collaboration Technologies and Systems (CTS).

[55]  James Keirstead,et al.  SYNCITY: AN INTEGRATED TOOL KIT FOR URBAN ENERGY SYSTEMS MODELLING , 2009 .

[56]  Saad Mekhilef,et al.  A review on energy saving strategies in industrial sector , 2011 .

[57]  Sanjay Ghemawat,et al.  MapReduce: simplified data processing on large clusters , 2008, CACM.

[58]  E. Gonzalez-Romera,et al.  Monthly Electric Energy Demand Forecasting Based on Trend Extraction , 2006, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[59]  K. Blok,et al.  The direct and indirect energy requirement of households in the European Union , 2003 .

[60]  Patricio Martínez-Barco,et al.  GPLSI: Supervised Sentiment Analysis in Twitter using Skipgrams , 2014, *SEMEVAL.

[61]  Hesham K. Alfares,et al.  Electric load forecasting: Literature survey and classification of methods , 2002, Int. J. Syst. Sci..

[62]  Gene H. Golub,et al.  Generalized cross-validation as a method for choosing a good ridge parameter , 1979, Milestones in Matrix Computation.

[63]  Markus Krötzsch,et al.  Semantic MediaWiki , 2006, Foundations for the Web of Information and Services.

[64]  Marcelo Arenas,et al.  Semantics and Complexity of SPARQL , 2006, International Semantic Web Conference.

[65]  Cheng-Lung Huang,et al.  A hybrid SOFM-SVR with a filter-based feature selection for stock market forecasting , 2009, Expert Syst. Appl..

[66]  C. Hamzaçebi Forecasting of Turkey's net electricity energy consumption on sectoral bases , 2007 .

[67]  Xiping Wang,et al.  Grey prediction with rolling mechanism for electricity demand forecasting of Shanghai , 2007, 2007 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services.

[68]  Arash Ghanbari,et al.  Integration of genetic fuzzy systems and artificial neural networks for stock price forecasting , 2010, Knowl. Based Syst..

[69]  Guan Le,et al.  Survey on NoSQL database , 2011, 2011 6th International Conference on Pervasive Computing and Applications.

[70]  Diyar Akay,et al.  Grey prediction with rolling mechanism for electricity demand forecasting of Turkey , 2007 .

[71]  Darren Tofts Book review: 'e-topia: ''Urban life, Jim---but not as we know it''', by William J. Mitchell , 2000 .

[72]  David Martens,et al.  Including high-cardinality attributes in predictive models: A case study in churn prediction in the energy sector , 2015, Decis. Support Syst..

[73]  Victor I. Chang,et al.  Towards a Big Data system disaster recovery in a Private Cloud , 2015, Ad Hoc Networks.

[74]  Alejandro Maté,et al.  An Integrated Multidimensional Modeling Approach to Access Big Data in Business Intelligence Platforms , 2012, ER Workshops.

[75]  Christoph F. Reinhart,et al.  Adding advanced behavioural models in whole building energy simulation: A study on the total energy impact of manual and automated lighting control , 2006 .

[76]  Alper Ünler,et al.  Improvement of energy demand forecasts using swarm intelligence: The case of Turkey with projections to 2025 , 2008 .

[77]  Vivek Utgikar,et al.  Energy forecasting: Predictions, reality and analysis of causes of error , 2006 .

[78]  Y. Zhao,et al.  Comparison of decision tree methods for finding active objects , 2007, 0708.4274.

[79]  Samir Chatterjee,et al.  A Design Science Research Methodology for Information Systems Research , 2008 .

[80]  Rui Neves-Silva,et al.  Stochastic models for building energy prediction based on occupant behavior assessment , 2012 .

[81]  S. F. Ghaderi,et al.  Integration of Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithm to Predict Electrical Energy consumption , 2006, IECON 2006 - 32nd Annual Conference on IEEE Industrial Electronics.

[82]  Shian-Chang Huang,et al.  Integrating GA-based time-scale feature extractions with SVMs for stock index forecasting , 2008, Expert Syst. Appl..

[83]  William J. Mitchell,et al.  e-topia: Urban Life, Jim - But Not as We Know It , 1999 .