Modelling of safety measure effects and risk compensation.

A model is proposed for the description of effects of safety measures introduced into a road transport system. The model explains the motives of road users' risk compensation towards the measures, and indicates when behavioural adaptation is likely to take place and its effects on road safety programmes. At its core the model has the notion that when a transport system is changed by engineering safety measures, road users do not respond only in the direction towards safety improvement but respond, in general, with three possible ways of behavioural adaptations, one of them towards more risk taking. Supported by illustrative examples, it also suggests that due to risk compensation, engineering safety measures alone are usually not sufficient, and, hopefully, carefully designed motivational safety measures can give us chances to modify road users' behaviour to make traffic safer.

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