Climate SPHINX: evaluating the impact of resolution and stochastic physics parameterisations in the EC-Earth global climate model

Abstract. The Climate SPHINX (Stochastic Physics HIgh resolutioN eXperiments) project is a comprehensive set of ensemble simulations aimed at evaluating the sensitivity of present and future climate to model resolution and stochastic parameterisation. The EC-Earth Earth system model is used to explore the impact of stochastic physics in a large ensemble of 30-year climate integrations at five different atmospheric horizontal resolutions (from 125 up to 16 km). The project includes more than 120 simulations in both a historical scenario (1979–2008) and a climate change projection (2039–2068), together with coupled transient runs (1850–2100). A total of 20.4 million core hours have been used, made available from a single year grant from PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe), and close to 1.5 PB of output data have been produced on SuperMUC IBM Petascale System at the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre (LRZ) in Garching, Germany. About 140 TB of post-processed data are stored on the CINECA supercomputing centre archives and are freely accessible to the community thanks to an EUDAT data pilot project. This paper presents the technical and scientific set-up of the experiments, including the details on the forcing used for the simulations performed, defining the SPHINX v1.0 protocol. In addition, an overview of preliminary results is given. An improvement in the simulation of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric blocking following resolution increase is observed. It is also shown that including stochastic parameterisation in the low-resolution runs helps to improve some aspects of the tropical climate – specifically the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the tropical rainfall variability. These findings show the importance of representing the impact of small-scale processes on the large-scale climate variability either explicitly (with high-resolution simulations) or stochastically (in low-resolution simulations).

[1]  A. Majda,et al.  The MJO in a Coarse-Resolution GCM with a Stochastic Multicloud Parameterization , 2014 .

[2]  C. Schär,et al.  The global energy balance from a surface perspective , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[3]  Jana Sillmann,et al.  Extreme Cold Winter Temperatures in Europe under the Influence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Blocking , 2011 .

[4]  Fabio D'Andrea,et al.  Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking Representation in Global Climate Models: Twenty Years of Improvements? , 2016 .

[5]  Mats Hamrud,et al.  Revolutionizing Climate Modeling with Project Athena: A Multi-Institutional, International Collaboration , 2013 .

[6]  Heekyung Shin A New Perspective on , 2017 .

[7]  S. Freitas,et al.  A scale and aerosol aware stochastic convective parameterization for weather and air quality modeling , 2013 .

[8]  Klaus Wyser,et al.  EC-Earth V2.2: description and validation of a new seamless earth system prediction model , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[9]  Brian J. Hoskins,et al.  Winter and Summer Northern Hemisphere Blocking in CMIP5 Models , 2013 .

[10]  Hannah M. Christensen,et al.  Constraining stochastic parametrisation schemes using high‐resolution simulations , 2019, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society.

[11]  Karl E. Taylor,et al.  An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design , 2012 .

[12]  D. Dee,et al.  ERA‐20CM: a twentieth‐century atmospheric model ensemble , 2015 .

[13]  Thomas Jung,et al.  Systematic Model Error: The Impact of Increased Horizontal Resolution versus Improved Stochastic and Deterministic Parameterizations , 2012 .

[14]  Yong Wang,et al.  Stochastic convective parameterization improving the simulation of tropical precipitation variability in the NCAR CAM5 , 2016 .

[15]  G. Shutts,et al.  Assessing parametrization uncertainty associated with horizontal resolution in numerical weather prediction models , 2014, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[16]  Richard Neale,et al.  Application of MJO Simulation Diagnostics to Climate Models , 2009 .

[17]  Mats Hamrud,et al.  Impact of model resolution and ensemble size on the performance of an Ensemble Prediction System , 1998 .

[18]  Antje Weisheimer,et al.  Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrizations: impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system , 2014, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[19]  Johnny Wei-Bing Lin,et al.  Influence of a stochastic moist convective parameterization on tropical climate variability , 2000 .

[20]  S. Hagemann,et al.  Representation of Extreme Precipitation Events Leading to Opposite Climate Change Signals over the Congo Basin , 2013 .

[21]  B. Hurk,et al.  A Revised Hydrology for the ECMWF Model: Verification from Field Site to Terrestrial Water Storage and Impact in the Integrated Forecast System , 2009 .

[22]  J. G.,et al.  Convective Forcing Fluctuations in a Cloud-Resolving Model : Relevance to the Stochastic Parameterization Problem , 2007 .

[23]  K.,et al.  The Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble project: a community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability , 2015 .

[24]  Sarah-Jane Lock,et al.  Towards process‐level representation of model uncertainties: stochastically perturbed parametrizations in the ECMWF ensemble , 2017 .

[25]  Nicholas R. Cavanaugh,et al.  Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden‐Julian oscillation: Linking hindcast fidelity to simulated diabatic heating and moistening , 2015 .

[26]  Philip J. Rasch,et al.  Tropical Intraseasonal Variability in 14 IPCC AR4 Climate Models. Part I: Convective Signals , 2006 .

[27]  Ecmwf Newsletter,et al.  EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS , 2004 .

[28]  S. Son,et al.  Northern Hemisphere blocking frequency and duration in the CMIP5 models , 2013 .

[29]  John F. B. Mitchell,et al.  The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment , 2010, Nature.

[30]  B. Hoskins,et al.  The Morphology of Northern Hemisphere Blocking , 2008 .

[31]  Hannah M. Christensen,et al.  Simulating weather regimes: impact of stochastic and perturbed parameter schemes in a simple atmospheric model , 2015, Climate Dynamics.

[32]  Anurag Dipankar,et al.  A stochastic scale‐aware parameterization of shallow cumulus convection across the convective gray zone , 2016 .

[33]  P. Bechtold,et al.  A stochastic parametrization for deep convection using cellular automata , 2013 .

[34]  A. Matthews,et al.  Intraseasonal oscillations in 15 atmospheric general circulation models: results from an AMIP diagnostic subproject , 1996 .

[35]  Andrew Dawson,et al.  Simulating regime structures in weather and climate prediction models , 2012 .

[36]  Daehyun Kim,et al.  MJO and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves Simulated by CMIP5 Climate Models , 2013 .

[37]  D. Stevens,et al.  Propagation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and scale interaction with the diurnal cycle in a high-resolution GCM , 2015, Climate Dynamics.

[38]  G. Shutts The propagation of eddies in diffluent jetstreams: Eddy vorticity forcing of ‘blocking’ flow fields , 1983 .

[39]  Hannah M. Christensen,et al.  Stochastic parameterization and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. , 2017 .

[40]  A. P. Siebesma,et al.  Stochastic convection parameterization with Markov chains in an intermediate complexity GCM , 2016 .

[41]  Andrew Dawson,et al.  Simulating weather regimes: impact of model resolution and stochastic parameterization , 2015, Climate Dynamics.

[42]  Tim Palmer Towards the probabilistic Earth‐system simulator: a vision for the future of climate and weather prediction , 2012 .

[43]  Andrew J. Majda,et al.  A stochastic multicloud model for tropical convection , 2010 .

[44]  J. Thepaut,et al.  The ERA‐Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system , 2011 .

[45]  Franco Molteni,et al.  On the operational predictability of blocking , 1990 .

[46]  Nils Wedi,et al.  High-Resolution Global Climate Simulations with the ECMWF Model in Project Athena: Experimental Design, Model Climate, and Seasonal Forecast Skill , 2012 .

[47]  G. Shutts A kinetic energy backscatter algorithm for use in ensemble prediction systems , 2005 .

[48]  Brian J. Hoskins,et al.  A new perspective on blocking , 2003 .

[49]  I. Moroz,et al.  Stochastic parametrizations and model uncertainty in the Lorenz ’96 system , 2013, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[50]  C. Deser,et al.  Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[51]  Martin Leutbecher,et al.  784 Towards process-level representation of model uncertainties : Stochastically perturbed parametrisations in the ECMWF ensemble , 2016 .

[52]  J. Susskind,et al.  Global Precipitation at One-Degree Daily Resolution from Multisatellite Observations , 2001 .

[53]  Bryan N. Lawrence,et al.  High-resolution global climate modelling: the UPSCALE project, a large-simulation campaign , 2014 .

[54]  Nick Rayner,et al.  The Met Office Hadley Centre sea ice and sea surface temperature data set, version 2: 1. Sea ice concentrations , 2014 .

[55]  Duane E. Waliser,et al.  Cracking the MJO nut , 2013 .

[56]  S. Valcke,et al.  The OASIS3 coupler: a European climate modelling community software , 2012 .

[57]  J. Wallace,et al.  Relationships between North Pacific Wintertime Blocking, El Niño, and the PNA Pattern , 1996 .

[58]  L. Leung,et al.  Toward the Dynamical Convergence on the Jet Stream in Aquaplanet AGCMs , 2015 .

[59]  R. Reynolds,et al.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , 1996 .

[60]  Martin Leutbecher,et al.  A Spectral Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter Scheme and Its Impact on Flow-Dependent Predictability in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System , 2009 .

[61]  Kevin I. Hodges,et al.  The Ability of CMIP5 Models to Simulate North Atlantic Extratropical Cyclones , 2013 .

[62]  G. Vecchi,et al.  Simulated Climate and Climate Change in the GFDL CM2.5 High-Resolution Coupled Climate Model , 2012 .

[63]  Masayuki Nakagawa,et al.  A Framework for Assessing Operational Madden–Julian Oscillation Forecasts: A CLIVAR MJO Working Group Project , 2010 .

[64]  Y. Hong,et al.  The TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA): Quasi-Global, Multiyear, Combined-Sensor Precipitation Estimates at Fine Scales , 2007 .

[65]  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes,et al.  Decadal prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[66]  Martin Köhler,et al.  The numerics of physical parametrization , 2004 .

[67]  R. Plant,et al.  A Stochastic Parameterization for Deep Convection Based on Equilibrium Statistics , 2008 .

[68]  Richard Neale,et al.  Process-Oriented MJO Simulation Diagnostic: Moisture Sensitivity of Simulated Convection , 2014 .

[69]  Jian Lu,et al.  High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6 , 2016 .

[70]  Paul Berrisford,et al.  The role of horizontal resolution in simulating drivers of the global hydrological cycle , 2014, Climate Dynamics.

[71]  Paolo Davini,et al.  Bidimensional Diagnostics, Variability, and Trends of Northern Hemisphere Blocking , 2012 .

[72]  Andrew J. Majda,et al.  The MJO and Convectively Coupled Waves in a Coarse-Resolution GCM with a Simple Multicloud Parameterization , 2010 .

[73]  K. Straub MJO Initiation in the Real-Time Multivariate MJO Index , 2013 .

[74]  Antje Weisheimer,et al.  Impact of stochastic physics on tropical precipitation in the coupled ECMWF model , 2017 .

[75]  J. Neelin,et al.  Toward stochastic deep convective parameterization in general circulation models , 2003 .

[76]  M. Wheeler,et al.  An All-Season Real-Time Multivariate MJO Index: Development of an Index for Monitoring and Prediction , 2004 .

[77]  Matthew D. Collins,et al.  Improved stochastic physics schemes for global weather and climate models , 2016 .

[78]  S. Hardiman,et al.  Multi‐model analysis of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking: Model biases and the role of resolution , 2013 .

[79]  Michael F. Wehner,et al.  The resolution sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere blocking in four 25-km atmospheric global circulation models. , 2017 .

[80]  G. Madec NEMO ocean engine , 2008 .

[81]  D. Klocke,et al.  Tuning the climate of a global model , 2012 .

[82]  Laure Raynaud,et al.  Impact of Stochastic Physics in a Convection-Permitting Ensemble , 2012 .

[83]  L. Ferranti,et al.  Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking as simulated by 15 atmospheric general circulation models in the period 1979–1988 , 1998 .

[84]  Pier Luigi Vidale,et al.  Atmospheric blocking in a high resolution climate model: influences of mean state, orography and eddy forcing , 2013 .

[85]  A. Sterl,et al.  EC-Earth A Seamless earth-System Prediction Approach in Action , 2010 .

[86]  D. Raymond,et al.  Balanced dynamics and convection in the tropical troposphere , 2015 .

[87]  P. R. Julian,et al.  Observations of the 40-50-day tropical oscillation - a review , 1994 .

[88]  Simon T. K. Lang,et al.  Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: state of the art and future vision , 2017 .

[89]  M. Blackburn,et al.  The Basic Ingredients of the North Atlantic Storm Track. Part I: Land-Sea Contrast and Orography , 2009 .

[90]  Tao Zhang,et al.  Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave? , 2011 .

[91]  Daniel F. Rex,et al.  Blocking Action in the Middle Troposphere and its Effect upon Regional Climate I. An Aerological Study of Blocking Action. , 1950 .