Explicit consideration of uncertainty in Great Lakes fisheries management : decision analysis of sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) control in the St. Marys River

We used decision analysis to assist the Great Lakes Fishery Commission (GLFC) with sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) control in the St. Marys River, which connects Lake Superior to Lake Huron and until recently has been a major source of sea lamprey infestation of Lake Huron. The process involved decision-makers, managers, and experts in an analysis of management options, objectives, and critical uncertainties affecting the expected perfor- mance of alternative choices. We developed quantitative assessments of uncertainty about sea lamprey demographics and about the implementation effectiveness of three pest control options: trapping adult lampreys, sterile male releases, and lampricide treatment. We used a stochastic simulation model to forecast future parasitic sea lamprey abundance in Lake Huron for 10 management options. Management options that included enhanced levels of trapping and sterile male releases exhibited the best performance for all measures. Our analysis substantially influenced the GLFC strategy for the St. Marys River, providing an example of how explicit consideration of uncertainty using decision analysis can influence fishery management decisions. Resume : Nous utilisons l'analyse decisionnelle pour aider la Commission des pecheries des Grands Lacs (GLFC) a controler la grande lamproie marine (Petromyzon marinus) dans la riviere St. Marys qui relie le lac Superieur au lac Huron et qui, jusqu'a recemment, etait une source majeure d'infestation des grandes lamproies marines au lac Huron. Le processus reunit les decideurs, les gestionnaires et les experts pour une analyse des options de gestion, des objectifs et des incertitudes critiques qui affectent la performance attendue des divers choix. Nous avons mis au point des eva- luations quantitatives de l'incertitude relative a la demographie de la grande lamproie marine, ainsi qu'a l'efficacite de la mise en oeuvre de trois choix de lutte contre ces ravageurs, soit le trappage des lamproies adultes, la liberation de mâles steriles et le traitement au lampricide. Nous utilisons un modele de simulation stochastique pour predire l'abondance future des grandes lamproies marines parasites au lac Huron en fonction de 10 options de gestion. De toutes les options de gestion, celles qui incluent une augmentation du trappage des adultes et de la liberation des mâles steriles connaissent les meilleures performances. Notre analyse a influence de facon importante la strategie de la GLFC dans la riviere St. Marys; c'est la un exemple qui montre comment la prise en consideration explicite de l'incertitude a l'aide d'une analyse decisionnelle peut influencer les choix de gestion des peches.

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