The Impact of the Subsidy Policy on Total Factor Productivity: An Empirical Analysis of China's Cotton Production

This paper develops one model to explore the relationship between the subsidy policy and the agricultural total factor productivity (TFP). It indicates that the agricultural TFP will be lower after the subsidy policy is implemented and there exists a negative relation between the subsidy and TFP, if subsidies are associated with the acreage. Using Malmquist index, this paper measures the changes of TFP in China's cotton production before and after the subsidy policy is implemented. The results verify that the subsidy policy could not increase but decrease the TFP of China's cotton production, not only in the whole country but also in major provinces of China. Based on the positive study, some policy implications are provided in the end of this paper.