Accepted or Abandoned? Predicting the Fate of Code Changes

Many mature Open-Source Software (OSS), as well as commercial, organizations have adopted peer code review as an integral part of the development process to ensure the quality of the product. Of particular interest are code changes that end up "abandoned," either because they are rejected, or (more commonly) because they are never accepted at all (at least not through the review tool). Several factors such as resource allocation, job environment, and efficiency mismatch between the author and the reviewer may cause a code change to be abandoned even after months of efforts from the developers and the reviewers. Predicting the review outcome of such code changes can ease the prioritization of tasks and the utilization of limited resources by saving time spent on low-quality code changes. In this paper, we conducted a comprehensive study to predict whether a code change is merged or abandoned and applied various well-known supervised machine learning algorithms. We propose PredCR, a Random Forest based model that predicts the review outcome of a code change with 0.91 f-measure at the beginning of the code change on the test set. Also, it improves predictions of abandoned changes by 27\%-103\% and merged changes by 5\%-11\%. Our model accurately classifies 93\% of the top 25\% code changes (with average 196 days duration) that go longest without being merged. PredCR can also adapt to the changes in feature values at different stages of the review process although it achieves very high performance at the very early stage (within 10\% of the review process). This way, prediction quality for a particular code change can improve as the code review progresses. We also conducted a study to find out the properties of an ideal training set for our tool. We found that training with the instances from the same projects ensures 9\%-25\% performance increase.