Asian Agriculture: A Tragedy of the Commons in the Making?

Patterns of growth in agricultural production existing in Asia and the changing conditions of its agricultural resources are reviewed. A simple system-dynamics model of the underlying generic relationships is then developed and experimented with using computer simulation to illustrate how agricultural resources are being overstrained and how the continuation of the policies causing this may precipitate a widespread decline in agricultural production across the board. Technological solutions to this problem may exist, but these will be ignored unless social and institutional reforms are introduced to create the incentives for adopting sustainable agricultural practices. The general directions for these reforms are outlined.