The Diffusion of Eco-Technologies: A Model-Based Theory

We propose a generic theory of the diffusion of eco-technologies that integrates properties of the market, technology, policy change, and public policy interventions. Eco-technologies are technologies that lead to reduced environmental stress compared to an incumbent, mainstream technology. Because our theory is generic, it can be applied to a wide set of different technologies. Methodologically, we rely on System Dynamics modeling and simulation to arrive at a dynamic, causally explicit, and endogenous explanation of the key feedback loops driving (or inhibiting) such diffusion processes. In addition to a description of our theory, we provide an extensive discussion of how the System Dynamics methodology can be used to conduct research and support policymaking in the context of eco-technologies.

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