Simulating an Impact of Road Network Improvements on the Performance of Transportation Systems under Critical Load: Agent-based Approach☆

In this paper, we analyze the impact of planned road network development on the dynamics of the automobile transportation system during the departure of visitors after the semifinal match of the 2018 FIFA World Cup, which will take place in the newly built stadium on Krestovsky Island. To perform such an analysis, we utilize an agent-based traffic flow simulation, which requires the construction of several models. This paper covers the following progress: (1) modeling the road network in Saint Petersburg, Russia (2) a population synthesis based on data provided by the Russian Federal Migration Service (FMS) (3) a comparative analysis of the simulated system behavior using the current and improved road network and (4) a sustainability analysis of the transportation system of the studied area. We estimate the impact of road improvements on traffic flow by simulating various scenarios and determining changes in distribution of agents travel time and load redistribution among exits from the area of interest. This paper is part of the project which aims to develop a large-scale agent-based traffic flow model of Saint Petersburg urban area applicable for a wide range of research tasks from transportation planning to disaster management.